My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
With the almost certain election of Joe Biden to the Presidency, we can expect a much more organized and effective Federal response to the pandemic beginning on January 20. If the pandemic is brought under control by spring sometime (and maybe a vaccine becomes available), the ordinary function of the leading economic indicators will be resumed – which means they start to have extra importance right about now.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment in terms of what those indicators forecast, and reward me a little bit for giving you that information.
P.S.: Because I am in much better frame of mind for some reason over the past few days, I will probably put up an edition of the Coronavirus Dashboard later today or tomorrow, as well as a post-mortem of the election nowcasts.
pandemic beginning on January 20. If the pandemic is brought under control by spring
”
should Johnny Cash still be living today, still singing today, would he be singing:
“as I was out walking the streets of El Paso
as I was out walking El Paso one day
I met a young cowboy all wrapped in white linen
I met a young cowboy as cold as the clay”
?
who knows what the Johnny would be singing? one thing for sure = on the 25th of October we had an increase of 60,000 cases of covid-19 over a 24-hour stretch. But in the most recent 24 hours we had an increase of 126K. this means that in less than two weeks the first derivative of our Coved-19 infection has doubled. after 10 more doubles our 24-hour tally of new cases will be slightly more than hundred and twenty-six million. this should give us enough widespread herd immunity to stop the pandemic in this country!
could herd immunity have stopped the 1918 pandemic? or could it have been stopped by something that happened even sooner than herd immunity?
a mutation? could we have a mutation now? a new daughter virus from a mutation of the mother virus? a daughter virus that would spread faster but have less morbidity and less mortality than the mother virus? yet give us crossimmunity to the mother virus? perhaps this mechanism will stop the pandemic much sooner than the herd immunity.