Some things going on at AB
Briefly, fellow writers. Dan is changing a few things for the better. In the comments section, you should be able to bold or italicize things eventually and do other functions which are normal when writing. We are going to track other blogs and news similar to what you may have seen elsewhere and have a special column for them. Freshen the place up so we can go forward another 10 years. Make it IPhone friendly (JF asked about).
I have also noticed some comments are ending up in “trash.” if you did not trash them, let me know and I will retrieve them and approve them. I am not doing it and for some reason the system is doing such.
Yay!
Carol:
We try. It has been a long time coming.
So where do I look for trash? I made several comments on SCOTUS which I did not think were particularly offensive and they never showed up. I accept if you determine they did not warrant being made public. đ
Terry:
It is the system doing you in. Not Dan or I. Just ley me know and I will retrieve them,
Will there be a way to post images (graphs) in comments?
Arne:
I am not sure yet. I would like to have similar capabilities for commenters as what I have as a writer.
OK.
I don’t see bold or italics options.
bold?
[b]bold[/b]?
On Deterministic Macroeconomic Cycles.
A very short Macroeconomic Summary of the 1790 Constitutional United States.
After a 1790 US initiating fractal of 18 years ending in the panic of 1807, two sequential 36 year US sub-fractal cycles self-assembled. The first 36 year cycle was caused by over investment and speculation in land acquired by Jefferson’s 1803 Louisiana purchase. Individual state and bank money creation and over-investment peaked and collapsed in the panic of 1837 with an economic/commodity nadir in 1842. The second 36 year cycle was caused by US railroad over-investment and speculation with global financial involvement which peaked with gross overbuilding and collapsed in the panic of 1873 with a nadir in stock valuations in 1877.
The panic of 1873 was a world wide event resulting in US depression level unemployment rates of 14% in the US and nearly 25% in New York City. Before the great depression of the 1930âs, the decade after after the panic of 1873 was known as Americaâs first great depression.
Americaâs Second Great Fractal started at the nadir in 1877. The US Second Great Fractal is composed of two sub-fractals: a 56 year first sub-fractal with a nadir market valuation in 1932, and a 89 year current second sub-fractal.
The second sub-fractal starting in 1932 is composed of two further sub-fractals: a 51 year 10-11/21-22/21-22 year sub-fractal ending in 1982 and the current 1982-2020 9/20/12 39 year sub-fractal.
The first 1932 to 1982 51 year sub-fractal was fueled by âover-investmentâ in World War II, Marshall plan spending, continued US military industrial complex cold war spending, and new technologies, principally, the transistor.
The second 1982-2020 second sub-fractal was fueled by continuously and drastically falling US and global sovereign debt interest rates, new microchip and internet technologies; a historical property bubble, the emergence of China as the worldâs dominant manufacturer with acceptance of other sovereign debt for its products; transoceanic shipping; and the emergence of the Euro, unwriting all good and bad Euro projects; and the global deficit spending, money creation, and zero rate interest policies associated with the 2008-2009 housing collapse; the 2019-2020 corporate debt collapse, and with COVIDâs global stimulus plans.
The January thru March 2020 global equity valuation collapse occurred in a quantitative fractal decay manner: 6/15/14 days :: y/2.5/2.5y days.
3 trillion dollars in US COVID stimulus deficit spending and near zero rates with some sovereigns offering negative rates have caused another fractal x/2.5x/2.5x equity valuation bubble growth rise from the March 2020 lows.
Tesla at PE ratio of about 1100 provides a scope of the magnitude of the current bubble valuations.
From the March 2020 low the fractal progression is 27/67/61 of 66-67 days days where x/2.5/2.5x peak growth will rapidly translate into y/2.5y/2.5y nonlinear valuation collapse.
27 day first fractal: 4/10/10/6 days :: x/2.5x/2.5/1.6x
67 day second fractal:
15(3/7/7) /// 32(7/16/11) /// 23 (4/8/8/6) days ::
66-67 day third fractal:
12(2/5/5/3)///. 29(5/13/13)// 4/10/10/1 of 6-7 days
Historical deterministic 144 year US Second Fractal Nonlinear Valuation Collapse appears to be at hand .
A 90 percent valuation drop over the equivalent of the next five to six trading days is consistent with the concluding 144 year second fractal.
“A 90 percent valuation drop over the equivalent of the next five to six trading days is consistent with the concluding 144 year second fractal.”
I love it when someone publishes prophecy. So we’ll know before November 1, right? The stock market will be worth ca. 10% of its value today, according to this prophecy?
Two non sequiturs in a row.
So if I am back to spread my conspiracy theories how about this one: It appears the GOP is doubling down on we â just have to live with Covid-19â As part of their approach they are not lifting a finger to help all of the folks who have been dislocated one way or another by the pandemic particularly small business in the hospitality industry. I point to the GOP controlled Senate and on the local level the GOP super controlled legislature in Wisconsin. This seems counterintuitive because the GOP always claims to be the friend of small business and small business people are often the most vocal supporters of the GOP. I think the reason is the MICâMoron in Chiefâargument on Thursday that Biden is going to shut down the glorious recovery we are all enjoying after those wretched scientists blew up our fantastic economy. I think it is pretty lame but the MIC and GOP generally do better with less educated voters and I imagine that there are a lot of people who are at wits end thinking that if they vote for a Democrat they will never be able to work again. I suspect that if an adequate relief bill passed, it would diminish that fear. Just my thoughts on what is going on and hoping that not only the MIC but some of his GOP enablers get tried for their times against the American people.