The 2020 Presidential election as forecast by State polling
The 2020 Presidential election as forecast by State polling
As we all know, in the US Presidential election national polls are of limited use, as the election is actually decided on a State by State basis.
I’ve seen lots of projections of the Electoral College vote based on national polls, but what if we go just by State polls, and in particular State polls that have been reported in the last 30 days?
That, dear reader, is what the following map looks like:
I prepared this map after a slew of State polling was reported on Wednesday. Here’s how it works:
– States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.
– States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.
– States where the range is between 5% and 10% are medium colors.
– States where the candidate is leading by 10% plus are dark colors.
The only change since Wednesday is that there was a Minnesota poll that gave Biden a 16% lead, enough to bring the average for that State over 10% in favor of Biden.
As of now, all Biden has to do is win the States in which he leads by 3% or more in the polling, and he wins the Electoral College, even without winning a single “toss-up” State as shown on the map.
The only surprising negative for Biden is that Pennsylvania remains a toss-up. Surprisingly, little polling has been done in that State, but while Biden has a slim lead on average, there are several polls dating from May that show a slight Trump lead.
I expect some of the Confederate States to return to the Trump fold. He always polls his worst when he appears both cruel and clueless. And that’s exactly what he has appeared between his actions on both COVID-19 and Black Lives Matter. His stands are unpopular, and his P.R. stunts (most notably the photo-op at the church) simultaneously have looked tin-eared and execrable.
Arkansas is a tossup?
Only if Bill Clinton is on the Dimocrat ticket.
You may be interested in this: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
“He always polls his worst when he appears both cruel and clueless.”
Given the fact that Trump is both cruel and clueless 100% of the time, one would think voters would see that more often. Democrats should not assume this in the bag. I would love to see all of the undecides flip for Biden so Trump goes down in flames.
The problem with polls, one of them anyway, is that they depend on people telling the truth to a stranger.
Without question, some trump voters will e ashamed to admit they are going to vote for trump, so they lie.
Don’t know how you can figure that into the results.
He doesn’t “appear” cruel and clueless, he “is” cruel and clueless. This is an important distinction. If it were a mere question of appearances he could work on his presentation. He could change his message. Hire different people to make his commercials. Work on his speeches etc. But cruel and clueless is who and what he is. It forms the basis of the appeal to his cruel and clueless base. That 30% of the population that he has targeted his entire political existence to appeal to. The pressures of a reelection campaign is simply shining a light a harsh light on the cruel and clueless lump of shit that forms his essence. That is why he is doomed. His only chance is massive cheating. And that is where the clueless bit will bite him in the ass.
SW,
If it is him doing the cheating.
I doubt that.
I absolutely count no chickens before they hatch, and there’s still about four and a half months to go. There are some things you can count on – there will be vote suppression efforts by the GOP, the COVID pandemic will still be raging, civil rights will be an issue, the Supreme Court will make a few decisions in the next week or two that will fire up one constituency or another. Aside from that, a whole lot could happen, especially because Trump is now a cornered rat. He will behave like a cornered rat. We are reliant upon the rest of the government to restrain him from some colossal national blunder made in the interest of getting what Trump wants at the expense of all else.
I will be nervous about things until January 20, 2021.
And no, Trump won’t specifically be doing the cheating. His enablers will be, and some of them are far more competent than he is. Which is another concern. The good thing is that American teenagers seem to be more than a match for his enablers so far. Long live K-pop fans!