Manufacturing still weak
Manufacturing still weak
I’m still traveling this morning, but for now let me just note that this morning’s durable goods orders showed a decline again:
Figure 1
Manufacturing is flat to slightly contracting. The consumer, primarily thanks to lower mortgage rates, is keeping the economy going.
“The consumer, primarily thanks to lower mortgage rates, is keeping the economy going.”
Maybe but real residential investment is also falling:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRFIC1
Real Private Residential Fixed Investment
I am not seeing it. Housing is moving sideways and so is manufacturing, increasingly likely Ford and GM over produced for the strike, but even that will only produce a glide down. If industrial production falls sharp enough, it ends the expansion.