What if Trump wins?

The election is very close.  This piece explains why the polls could easily be off by 5 points or more.  Because the polling errors are very likely correlated across states, this means there is a reasonable chance that the election will not end up being close, but we have no idea who is ahead.  Trump can certainly win.

What if Trump wins?

If Trump wins, liberals need to acknowledge this and oppose his violent, corrupt, and power-aggrandizing policies on the merits.  Opposition should be peaceful and based on appeal to widely shared values and identities. 

More controversially, I think the same thing is true if Trump steals the election and his theft is ratified by the Supreme Court, which presumably it would be.  We need to preserve what we can of our institutional structure, avoid scaring reactionaries in the Republican party into supporting Trump’s most authoritarian policies, and attempt to rebuild after Trump passes from the scene.  We don’t need people saying they are moving to Canada (if you want to leave, fine, just do it quietly), or Antifa provocateurs giving Trump and his allies justification for official violence.  Peaceful, nondisruptive resistance may not work, but it is more likely to work than performative threats of violence and disorder that will quickly be crushed.

How did we get here?

Regardless of who wins, Democrats need to think about why Trump has so much support, and what we can do to prevent a Trump-like figure from threatening our democracy in the future.  The sobering truth is that Trump would very likely have won re-election in 2020 without covid, and he would likely be winning now (assuming he loses) were it not for Dobbs. 

What makes the current position of the Democratic party even more sobering is that Harris is a reasonably strong candidate.  Her first few weeks as the nominee were handled quite deftly.  Her likeability made her well-suited to the contest with Trump.  She comes across as thoughtful and competent.  She is well-qualified for the office.  She is clearly hardworking and disciplined; she prepared carefully for her debate against Trump and executed on her strategy.  Perhaps her race and gender are weighing her down slightly, but that’s not obviously true.  Harris has arguably been too reluctant to separate herself from Biden (which is odd because Biden seems okay with this) and she has had trouble acknowledging – much less explaining – her position changes.  In the overall scheme of things, however, it’s a big problem if Democrats cannot comfortably win an election pitting Harris against Trump.

Winning the center, calming the right, and holding the left

How can Democrats improve their standing with the public?  The fact that Harris is downplaying her race and sex is no doubt smart politics.  I suspect it will also help to reduce the identitarian excesses on the left, which will quiet, to a degree, the forces of reaction on the right.  However, I do not believe that this will be enough to make the Democrats a majority party or to make the Republicans abandon white, Christian, male grievance as a mobilization tool or embrace democracy and the rule of law.

Many thoughtful commentators claim the Democrats (including, presumably, Harris) need to emphasize more moderate and popular policies.  Tacking to the center is generally good strategy, but it is not a sure thing; it risks depressing turnout among a party’s core supporters.  As Seth Masket points out, Trump is clearly focusing more on motivating his base with racist appeals than winning over cross-pressured or undecided voters, and this may work for him.  (Also see Nate Cohn here (gift).) 

Going forward, a successful effort to tack to the center by Democrats will require a sustained effort to persuade progressive voters that more centrist messaging and a bit of compromise on policy are an acceptable price to pay for expanding the Democratic coalition.  Unless Democrats can instill an ethos of compromise and a sense of realism about politics, efforts to build a governing coalition will be hampered by the risk of defections on the left.