2024 Election Life and Death Game Theory: Post- Conventions
This is the easiest one. No possibility of changes. It’s Biden/Harris v. Trump/Sycophant.
For Biden, the alternative is clear: the race would be between Kamala Harris and DJT.
Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.
I welcome the retirement of the good old boys club and the advancement of the next generation to where they should have been ten years ago. Or more
If republicans were smart (which they are not) they would go with Haley/Hogan or Sununu.
If democrats were smart (which they are not) they would go with Beshear/ Wes Moore. Beshear won easily in a very red state. Moore for the obvious reasons.
As for trump, I view his winning like I view death. I fear them but I am somewhat curious about the afterlife of both.
Mark:
We get through a pandemic, sidestepping an economic disaster, shoring up millions of people who could not get by, and we throw the leader out the door. That is the story which needs to be repeated continuously. This could have gone on for years afterwards the same as 2007/8. Biden took the right steps. And you are saying, he is no longer needed?
No Bill, I am not saying he is not needed. Like I replied to Joel, I fully support him. I am talking about democrats defeating trump. Biden has issues (again, not with me) with many independent voters.
Both candidates have issues. Health and/or legal. Discussing possible replacement candidates is not necessarily an exercise in futility.
I dare say I am not worried about Biden having ‘issues with other voters’.
Just vote for him and urge others to do so. Your country needs this.
Anyone who is *actually* smart will know that Biden and Trump are the only choices in November and discussing counterfactuals about other major party candidates is just silly.
I know a second Trump term will be a disaster. Biden is the only alternative, and he beat Trump before. No reason he can’t beat Trump again in November.
Joel, let me rephrase. If the leadership of the parties were smart…
Those two are not the only choices; there are third party candidates.
Please do not get me wrong, I fully support Biden. But I also think beating trump is more important. I am not as confident as you that Biden will win. The electoral college puts the outcome in the hands of a small number of voters in a few swing states.
BTW, I hear opinion pieces all the time speculating on alternative candidates.
@Mark,
I never said I was confident that Biden would win. I only said there’s no reason I can see that he can’t. That’s not the same thing. We are writing in March. The election is in November.
There are only two choices in the sense that either Trump or Biden will win. Given that there are options to write in candidates as well as third party candidates, there are, if not infinite choices, at least about 200 million. However, Biden and Trump are the only choices that matter.
I hear opinion pieces all the time speculating on alternative candidates. They are stupid. I ignore them. YMMV.
MarkG
Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, JFK, LBJ, Carter,Clinton, Obama, and Biden
won with the Electoral College intact. Democrats would win again with Biden if they bothered to campaign in the “small states,” which might mean learning to care about what those people care about instead of praying for a Constitutional Amendment, which we can’t get, and should not get. that’s the trouble with progressives: after they lose an election they look for “the reason”… kind of like the R’s looking for commies under the bed.
Have you looked at his schedule lately? He is campaigning in “small states”, nearly everyday, while Trump plays golf and calls it in
Ten
glad to hear it. but campaigning is more than making speeches. organizing is the key, and that does mean listening to the people. from what I have seen on AB that is something the Left is not good at. “good” means doing it well.
back in the day a famous psychotherapist explained that sincerely listening to his clients was the key to “letting them” (as opposed to “getting thrm to”) see where their thinking was going wrong. That inspired a whole genreration of wannabe therapists to say, “yeah, sincerity is the key. if you can fake that you’ve got it made.”
and then there’s clinton, obama, and biden, etc winning in spite of the electoral college…which you are not going to change and shouldn’t, because that amounts to declaring you don’t give a damn about the “small” states.
how many electoral college votes do the “swing states” have anyway.
btw; when the electoral college was invented, the “small states” were not mostly slave states…that’s another fact the Left cannot understand.
I’d like to see the Left focus on reality instead of parroting baloney talking points.
What if Trump were to die before the election? Considering his age, weight, general health, and lifestyle, a fatal stroke or heart attack isn’t at all impossible.
@Aerschig,
His brother died of a heart attack at age 42. While that’s been attributed to alcoholism, there could be a genetic risk factor. His dad died of Alzheimers at 93. Donald is 77 and a teetotaler, although it is alleged that he abuses stimulants.
I observed that most of the “concepts” of a Biden swap involve him withdrawing still a few months from now. Some have it just a week or so before the convention and at least one was actually post-convention. I don’t see any need to swap, but also don’t think it matters at all: in every state that is probably critical (Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and a couple more) is completely about turnout. Candidate X is not losing even 1 vote in Wisconsin that Biden would have gotten, because it’s about the other candidate really. But same for Biden, so why bother?
Eric
yes, as you point out, the Democrats can’t even get the Left to vote for them.