The three best arguments against an economic slowdown
by New Deal democrat
The three best arguments against an economic slowdown
I still think I’m right that there will be a worsening economic slowdown that shows up by about summertime and continues towards the end of the year.But there is one long leading indicator and two important short leading indicators that are going the other way. Rather than ignore them, I accept them and explain why I don’t think they negate my forecast. This article is up at Seeking Alpha.
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On a more somber note, Today We Are All Parisians.
I’m not really commenting on the linked post so much as our economic focus on “economic slowdown”. Is it not obvious that if job growth exceeds population growth that the growth must come to an end? If GDP growth exceeds population growth plus productivity growth must it not undergo slowdown? Both of these questions have non-zero points of interest, so why is so much of economic growth discussion geared to points when growth drops below zero?
1.Interest rates are more irrelevant than you think
2.The stock market is irrelevant. It has been flat for 7 months now. No volume means the selloffs are weaker
3.Jobless claims are lying. One, there was the “recovery” from the shutdown. 2ndly, seasonality on late easter’s always show this pattern. Lastly, Jobless claims are going through a secular decline that would have happened if the US economy had 1.7% growth since 2010. If the U-3 was still 10%, jobless claims would probably be down to 500k now just from the boomer withdrawal itself.
The bigger sign is the sluggishness in debt expansion and the fact that buyback debt has collapsed. This is bleeding into consumer spending and earnings downgrades have already started. The market will be forced to contract soon enough. Volume will rise and long’s will be forced to cover. Then comes the producer white flag and claims spike. I would say 275k is a recession imo, in todays demo. 400, a major recession.