This is probably Donald Trump’s biggest mistakes, his refusal to certify Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran and his fullout abrogation of it by announcing the reimposition of full economic sanctions against Iran, although we had not fully undone those sanctions anyway. An immediate victim in the US of this action will be Boeing workers who were to benefit from a $3 billion contract Boeing had with Iran, now cancelled by order of the US government. Needless to say, Trump has simply lied repeatedly about this matter, claiming the Iranians are not in compliance, when the IAEA and all other parties to the agreement say they are. Trump has strutted some reports stolen by Israeli intelligence, but those show almost nothing we already did not know, most particularly that Iran did have a covert nuclear weapons program prior to 2003 that it shut down.
I have posted on this topic regularly over a long period of time, going back all the way to the predecessor of this blog (Econospeak), MaxSpeak. I shall not reiterate all that I have said over those years, although I think my track record has been pretty good. I have long heavily relied on Juan Cole’s Informed Comment for information on what is going on in Iran, and his track record on that has been excellent.
Two conflicting points come out, one suggesting bad things happening, one suggesting maybe not so bad. The bad is that Trump appears by all reports to simply have no plan beyond reimposing sanctions. Apparently he and his advisers think they can topple the regime, that economic unhappiness by Iranian citizens frustrated at failing to get much in the way of economic benefits from the JCPOA will rise up and overthrow the regime. But the more likely reaction will be for Iranians to move to support the regime against this clearly unwarranted and hostile act by the US. Of course apparently the Israeli and Saudi governments might like to have us engage in military action against Iran, which would be truly disastrous, but that does not seem to be in the works anytime soon. Anyway, it appears that aside from undoing yet another thing Obama did (lots of criticizing Obama and Kerry in his announcement), he really seems not to know what to do next. What I really wonder is if he truly believes his own lies that the Iranians have not been keeping to the deal.
The more positive fact is that all of the other participants of the deal: Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, and the EU, have all openly criticized Trump for this action and are not reimposing sanctions. Indeed, they seem to be acting so they can get around the effects through banking by the US to keep doing business with Iran, such as by using the euro instead of the dollar. This means that while Iranian leaders made noises about exiting the deal themselves and starting up their centrifuges again, maybe they can be talked out of doing that by the other parties to it. That would simply leave the US alone with its unemployed Boeing workers paying the price for this rank stupidity of Trump’s. Let us hope for the best at this bad moment.
Barkley Rosser
Yeah, Like the deal Trump will try and cut with North Korea, the end result is simply a decline in U.S. influence in that part of the world except for strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia–from whence most of the 9/11 terrorists came–and Israel, a long time ally but an international pariah. It will also cause Europe to grudgingly accede to more of Russia’s aggression because the U.S. is no longer an adequate partner in resisting Russia. Coincidence that this is Putin’s long run strategy? I am getting more and more concerned about the North Korea summit because Kim Jong Ung appears to know exactly how to play Donnie like a fiddle. He has set him up better than I would have thought possible and the only question now is what North Korea and China will give him, if anything, to save face when they get everything they are after. Meanwhile his base of the deplorables, the uneducated and the oligarchs, think he is making America great again when in reality he is taking the U.S. back to the 19th century, both domestically and internationally.
The result of Trump’s international pivots are that China will claim East Asia for its equivalent of the Monroe Doctrine. Russia will become the reference point for European policies. The US will be relegated to North, Central and South America. Also, an end to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
The lies: the imagery of Iran’s Ayatollah nuking US cities! What did US get from half a billion in spending on star wars, and what use the star wars east Europe deployment?
The lies about the “sponsor of terrorism” when Iranian support boots on the ground [Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) mostly Shi’a are now recognized Iraqi security forces] nixed ISIS in Iraq!
The greatest local terrorist in the Middle East is Saudi Arabia: the ignoble mugging in Yemen and support for al Nusra and Jaish al Islam in Syria!
The second great terrorist in the Middle East is Israel from 2006 in Lebanon with 4.7 million cluster bomblets* [most in last 3 days when the peace was nearly done] half of which are duds which become land mines, and 2000 killed because they are in Gaza in 2014!
Who is the Queen of Hearts in the US’ neocon Wonderland?
According to al Jazera:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/05/iran-khamenei-trump-hell-180509115237052.html
EU signatories of the Iran Nuke deal reputed to say: “they also raised concerns about Iran’s ballistic-missile programme “and its destabilising regional activities”, including in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Run down on what is to be “sanctioned” 3 month and 6 month phase.”
That is rich, Iran is supporting the legitimate government in Syria from Saudi and Emirate supported Salafi terrorists and EU pandering to oil royalty says that is “destabilizing” Saudi oil terror, sponsored by the US and UK is okay!!!
Who is the Queen of Hearts in the Wonderland the west enjoys? Where does Israel, and Saudi royals get the power to send off the US Jabberwocky aka war machine?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-08/what-s-next-who-gets-hit-when-the-u-s-resumes-iran-sanctions
The hope is US can get more curbs on Iran’s “aspirations” which frighten Netanyahu and scare the terrorist Emirs.
All it takes is a few players to say “no”.
Run down on oil impact:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-09/iran-deal-donald-trump-path-to-disaster/9741806
While on cue Israel decides it can “make bombing work” like US in Vietnam:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/05/08/iran-military-base-in-syria-attacked-sources-say.html
In exchange for dumb rockets fired at Israeli occupiers in the Golan a 21st century remake of “Rolling Thunder” is unleashed: US arms operated by Israel another attempt to prove bombing does anything more than limit assailants’ casualties.
From Heritage:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-was-right-terminate-the-iran-deal-25755?page=2
After the US reneged on the nuclear deal, “The next thoughtful step is for Iran to willingly come back to the table to tackle these fundamental and reasonable concerns.”
The US decided the nuclear agreement should do more getting Iran in line with the Saudi prince’s desires. So US pulls out because Obama did not neuter Iran in 2015.
While Bolton as a paid speaker to MEK (largely despised in Iran) assured them the US would effect regime change in 2019!
India will likely continue to buy a big part of Iranian oil as will China.
Maybe US interest will get a part of 5% of ARAMCO in the IPO.
Terry/Joel,
I agree, I suspect Kim has a plan and it fits in large part with Xi’s aspirations.
I suspect the ante for denuking the Korean peninsula includes all US forces out of S Korea (if I were Kim I would include Japan and the Ryukus) and US naval formations capable of delivering nukes be sanctioned from north Asian waters.
While Russia is concerned with securing the Caspian area, they remember in 1918 the Brits attempted to take advantage of the White Russians and grab the Caspian area coming in from Persia. An Iran standing up to PNAC aspirations is a security interest for Russia.
I thank all of you for your thoughtful comments which I have no serious disagreements. So I shall add some additional remarks.
The matter of Korea I discussed in another post, but I retain a smidgeon of possibility that Trump might actually follow through on what both of the Koreas and China want him to do, to officially sign off on the end of the Korean war officially. We shall see.
I think some of you are overstating the link between long trends and this decision. Yes, China is gradually increasing its influence in East Asia over the US, but this particular decision has little to do with that. What is more important is the Central Asia Silk Road Plan of China that involves Iran, with this getting a big boost from Trump’s decision. An obviously important fact here is that China is Iran’s largest current oil export market, about a third of Iranian exports, and China will probably be maintaining that, if not increasing it if US sanctions hit Iran too hard.
As for Russia, it is a secondary player here. The claim that the Europeans would not trust the US against Russia is just off. On this issue the Russians and the Europeans are fully in agreement that the US is wrong to have withdrawn from the JCPOA, and the EU and Russia are for now fully committed to preserving the agreement with Iran to keep it from movng towards a nuclear weapons program, and overcoming the newl US economic sanctions to maintain their economic deals with Iran.
Barkley,
Thank you for your added insight.
I think OBOR [or whatever it is called] is one of the long games in that part of the world for India, (trying to get in) Russia and China. As a side potential it brings Pakistan and Afghanistan up as well.
In terms of “long game” time, demographics and geography are not on the side of DC-Jerusalem-Riyadh axis.
I saw a note in some paper on line that the rail line from Beijing west is operating through Tehran.
What is the US media up to?
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/11/opinions/the-good-news-from-iraq-bergen/index.html
“The defeat of ISIS was an Iraqi-led operation supported by the US-led coalition. It was Iraq’s elite Special Forces Counterterrorism Service that spearheaded the charge against ISIS.”
No word about PMU!
“Abadi deftly managed the defeat of ISIS using the Iraqi military in alliance with Shia militias and Kurdish forces.”
And PMU is mainstream Iraqi security. The authority Adabi used over the Kurds to take Kirkuk. “Iraq now has the best ground forces in the region.” Per Doug Ollivant.
“What is striking about these various parties is that none of them are running on overtly sectarian lines as “the Sunni party” or “the Shia party.” This bodes well for the future of Iraq.”
The defeat of ISIS which abided in the Sunni areas was a severe blow to the Sunni tribes. Sunnis in Iraq need to keep their heads down, Saudi canot help given their Houthi failures.
And abeisance to Bolton:
“Iran also has considerable sway in Iraq and could signal to those Shia militias that take some degree of direction from Tehran to turn up the heat inside Iraq.
The neocon tone is there. Militias like PMU name not spoken!
“but I retain a smidgeon of possibility that Trump might actually follow through on what both of the Koreas and China want him to do, to officially sign off on the end of the Korean war officially.”
That depends on how much Trump remains in the thrall of Steve Bannon.