Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Ballance at the New York Times

“Ballance” as defined by Chris Cillizza consists of choosing a metric such that it gives a balanced conclusion. The ur-example was his own corruption scorecard which assessed whether Republicans or Democrats were ahead in the corruption game. He defined rules for scoring which included only alleged corruption of current office holders counts. An editor (whose […]

Hearing echoes of effective demand

I see two articles this morning about how increasing inequality will lead to slower growth. How Increasing Income Inequality Is Dampening U.S. Economic Growth, And Possible Ways To Change The Tide, by S&P Capital IQ. Comment on first article by ABC news, Wealth Gap is slowing US economic growth. The articles are basically describing how […]

Illinois’ next governor may make Romney look like a saint

Does the name Bruce Rauner ring a bell? No, me neither. It turns out he’s the Republican nominee for governor in Illinois, which under normal circumstances would mean he’s a nobody. But he’s been leading incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn in polls all summer, and could actually end up as the state’s next governor. This is […]

More drought?

Is there more drought in store for California and the Southwest?  The Kelvin Wave that preceded an El Nino has dissapated and the  El Nino not not expected to develop. That’s because the largest surge of heat ever recorded moving west to east in the Pacific Ocean, often referred to as a Kelvin Wave, which was supposed […]

Uncertainty for a Recovering Bayesian Fortune Teller

Attention conservation notice. This is a comment on a Five year old Cosma Shalizi post which begins “Attention conservation notice: 2300 words of technical” h/t Brad DeLong Shalizi argues that a Bayesian must have absolute confidence that he knows the probability of any event — a diffuse prior just means that the probability that variables […]

Inversions Hurt Individual Investors, Too

Taken from gated post from Vanguard Fund Adviser: Inversions Hurt Individual Investors, Too As U.S. corporations move offshore to potentially avoid billions in U.S. taxes, they are sticking their shareholders with an unexpected tax burden over which investors have no control. The Joint Commission on Taxation, a non-partisan congressional research panel, estimates that the U.S. […]