Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

What Remains of the Keynesian Revolution ?

Robert Waldmann I like to criticize financies, financial regulators and fresh water economists. I should defend something for once. It is easy to criticize. So I ask to what extent has the IS-LM-Phillips curve model been proven false. Also what useful insights can one gain from the IS-LM-Phillips curve model. A long long trip down […]

Treasury and Citi

The WSJ reports on an Obama administration plan to convert US Treasury owned preferred shares to common stock. The plan seems to be an answer to the question “How does one save an insolvent bank without giving a windfall to current shareholders or nationalizing ? “ The government will convert its stake only to the […]

What do You do With a Bunch of Unsold Cars?

by cactus What do You do With a Bunch of Unsold Cars? Lloyd’s List had this story the other day: CAR manufacturer Toyota has so many unsold cars it has had to charter a ship to store them all. Toyota said today it had chartered a 2,500-capacity vessel which will simply stand idle in port […]

Schizofinance

Robert Waldmann In this post, I mentioned something which I have been thinking about. It seems to me that many strategies of financial market participants are based on simultaneously believing that financial markets are efficient and inefficient. If financial markets are efficient, then the way to maximize risk adjusted returns is to buy and hold […]

Suspend Mark-to-Market?

reader Sammy guest post Suspend Mark-to-Market? Section 132 of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (“restates the SEC’s authority to suspend the application of FASB 157 if the SEC determines that it is in the public interest and protects investors”), is an important part of the solution to the current financial crisis, and may […]

Social Security has no Unfunded Liability

by Bruce Webb Not in any real world sense. And before shaking your head in sorrow at the fact that Bruce seemingly has lost it given the numbers in Table IV.B6.—Unfunded OASDI Obligations for 1935 (Program Inception)Through the Infinite Horizon which clearly show a $4.3 trillion dollar gap over the 75 year window and a […]

"Price Revelation" is mysticism.

Robert Waldmann Felix Salmon has a fascinating article on the Gaussian Copula. Obviously I had noticed that financial market participants had made some mistakes in the recent past, but I had no idea how crazy they had been. I’d say that one implication of Salmon’s article is that the invention of the CDS was very […]