rdan…lifted from comments by Movie Guy
Key points from CBO’s analysis of implementing the President’s budgetary proposals.
“As estimated by CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation, the President’s proposals would add $4.8 trillion to the baseline deficits over the 2010–2019 period. CBO projects that if those proposals were enacted, the deficit would total $1.8 trillion (13.1 percent of GDP) in 2009 and $1.4 trillion (9.6 percent of GDP) in 2010. It would decline to about 4 percent of GDP by 2012 and remain between 4 percent and 6 percent of GDP through 2019.”
“The cumulative deficit from 2010 to 2019 under the President’s proposals would total $9.3 trillion, compared with a cumulative deficit of $4.4 trillion projected under the current-law assumptions embodied in CBO’s baseline.”
“CBO’s estimates of deficits under the President’s budget exceed those anticipated by the Administration by $2.3 trillion over the 2010–2019 period. The differences arise largely because of differing projections of baseline revenues and outlays. CBO’s projection of baseline deficits exceeds the Administration’s estimate (prepared on a comparable basis) by about $1.6 trillion.”
“Proposed changes in tax policy would reduce revenues by an estimated $2.1 trillion (or 6.1 percent) over the next 10 years.”
“The proposals with the greatest effect on the budget include modifications to and the permanent extension of provisions of the 2001 and 2003 tax legislation (EGTRRA and JGTRRA); extension of the Making Work Pay tax credit; indexing of the exemption amounts for the AMT; implementation of a cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions; and limits on itemized deductions.”
“Proposed changes in spending programs would add $1.7 trillion (excluding debt service) to outlays over the next 10 years, an increase of 4.4 percent above baseline levels.”
“Outlays for refundable tax credits, higher spending for payments to physicians under Medicare, and increased discretionary spending for a variety of annually appropriated programs account for the bulk of those changes.”
“Debt held by the public would rise, from 41 percent of GDP in 2008 to 57 percent in 2009 and then to 82 percent of GDP by 2019 (compared with 56 percent of GDP in that year under baseline assumptions).”
“Interest costs associated with greater borrowing would add another $1.0 trillion to deficits over the 2010–2019 period.”
guest statement by Movie Guy:
The real problem with the President’s budget proposal falls within the deficit projections for FY2013-19. Simply stated, the deficit numbers are headed in the wrong direction.
The burden of responsibility for government funding will shift to the Congress once the FY2010 budget is adopted in legislation (whatever final product is rendered). But, at this time, the problem exists with the outyear deficit projections put forth by the President and his Administration.
The President has not put forth a sustainable set of budget proposals through 2019.
The deficits projected for 2013-2019 are the problem.
(Update by BW. I have added the respective tables first from the OMB original release and then the CBO’s Preliminary Analysis to allow some side by side comparison of economic projections)