rdan

Robert Waldmann In this post, I mentioned something which I have been thinking about. It seems to me that many strategies of financial market participants are based on simultaneously believing that financial markets are efficient and inefficient. If financial markets are efficient, then the way to maximize risk adjusted returns is to buy and hold […]

reader Sammy guest post Suspend Mark-to-Market? Section 132 of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (“restates the SEC’s authority to suspend the application of FASB 157 if the SEC determines that it is in the public interest and protects investors”), is an important part of the solution to the current financial crisis, and may […]

by Bruce Webb Not in any real world sense. And before shaking your head in sorrow at the fact that Bruce seemingly has lost it given the numbers in Table IV.B6.—Unfunded OASDI Obligations for 1935 (Program Inception)Through the Infinite Horizon which clearly show a $4.3 trillion dollar gap over the 75 year window and a […]

Robert Waldmann Felix Salmon has a fascinating article on the Gaussian Copula. Obviously I had noticed that financial market participants had made some mistakes in the recent past, but I had no idea how crazy they had been. I’d say that one implication of Salmon’s article is that the invention of the CDS was very […]

Robert Waldmann is still trying to learn journalistic arithmetic. Recently I learned that 500,000 = 0 Now I learn from CNN that I got to restudy fractions or division or something as it seems that “two thirds” is equal to 92% A new national poll indicates that two-thirds of those who watched President Obama’s address […]

by divorced one like Bush Ok, here are my basic issues with the substance of President Obama’s speech. First, may I remind everyone that as of 11/08 I declared my divorce successful. Has it become my mission accomplish moment? I heard this: “And we will expand our commitment to charter schools. but as a father […]

rdan Slightly left of center with gracious charm and strength. Whitehouse press office Remarks of President Barack Obama — Address to Joint Session of Congress Remarks of President Barack Obama – As Prepared for DeliveryAddress to Joint Session of CongressTuesday, February 24th, 2009 Madame Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, and the First Lady […]

By Spencer The Conference Board Index of Consumer Confidence fell to an all time low of 25 in February– 1985=100.. While many economist debate about the how much of a leading indicator consumer confidence is,I find it to be a very good concurrent indicator. I use it to model real retail sales and have long […]

By Spencer, In the 1990s Greg Mankiw said that the Clinton tax increases would cause a major recession. In fact, the tax increases were followed by a major boom. In the early 2000s Greg Mankiw said the Bush tax cuts would cause an economic boom. In fact, the tax cut was followed by the weakest […]