Drone Swarms
Drones are changing warfare. They are cheap and deadly. I am thinking about their use in stopping a marine invasion. The reason is that I am concerned that it is not clear enough to Xi JinPing that an invasion of Taiwan would be a huge error.
The problem with anti-ship drones is that they are attacking a target with anti-aircraft defences and one which can survive some explosions. I think this means that a very large number of drones must converge on the ship (or ships defending each other).
At least first I will discuss flying drones (although recent news shows the importance of drone boats) A lcurrent limit on mass attacks with drones is the limited number of human controlers and control stations. I think it makes sense to have a small number of human controlled drones guiding a large number of unmanned vehicles. I think this is an easy problem to solve.
I think it is not hard for unmanned vehicles to determine the distance to other unmanned vehicles — they just have to send out signals with identifying codes and distance is determined from the strength of the signal. This means that with 4 manned drones, an automated unmanned craft can fly at the same distance from each, or one half as far from drone 1.0 than from 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0.
The human controlled drones do not have to be on the outiside of the swarm. Two drones, also distance to 1.0 half of 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 but not close to to each other would be one between the controlled drones and one basically in front of drone 1.0.
I have described relative distances (half as far) because the plan is for the human controlled drones to converge on a target and the automated unmanned vehicles to converge with them.
I call the first drone 1.0, because I think it is easy to keep going if it is shot down. Human control could switch to another drone 1.1. The calculations would have to be updated (so other automated unmanned flying vehicles keep steady on their course) given the known position of 1.1 relative to 1.0. Today, that is a trivial calculation which can be performed by extremely cheap onboard processors which require a tiny current to operate.
I think a swarm of thousands of drones each of which can easily be shot down would saturate any air defense.
Drone Boats.
Click the link above to read a report on one that did serious damage to a merchant ship which was abandoned (no casualties). Here I think submarine drones are interesting. Propellors are a key vulnerability of ships . They are vulnerable, and when operating, very very noisy. This means it is possible for marine drones to be targetting towards propellors (the drone might have to turn off it’s propulsoin to listen).
This would require very limited human control — basically giving the order to destroy any propellor operating in some area with no own or neutral ships.
Anduril to Open Large Scale Production Facility for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles
Re the uncrewed naval vessels (boat drones), the sonar systems could be designed to home in on the prop sounds produced by the Chinese naval vessels approaching. As I recall, the US Navy had recorded, analyzed, and stored aboard its SONAR systems all of the sounds produced by the Soviets ships. Each screw produces a slightly different sound and they can be teased apart with modern computer systems. That was with technology from 40 years ago. One could probably put the entire Chinese navy’s fleet onto the equivalent of a flash drive these days for analysis. Just pick the right choice from Column A or Column B.
Another alternative would be self-moving mine systems equipped with torpedoes. The system could move from time to time to frustrate any enemy effort to demine an area. The torpedo could be launched/released from below the surface and then attack an enemy ship. Again, use the sound surveillance systems available to confirm targets and allow the on-board AI to have at it. If one were to use air-dropped mines like this (and the US Air Force’s “Rapid Dragon” system deployed aboard cargo aircraft like the C-17 or C-130, the sea around Taiwan would be made very interesting for any attacking Chinese force. “Kamikaze” was the name given by the Japanese to the “divine wind” which destroyed the invading Mongolian force. Kamikaze drones would be the name given to the advanced technology systems which eliminate Xi’s delusions of grandeur.
i remember a commenter here who ssuggested (in time) that a thousand drones at the Ukraine border would stop the Russians in their tracks. alas the drones only showed up later after the targets were scattered and the Russians had developed defenses.
Could be Xi (formerly known as twitterer) has an ap for that.
But I think it ought to be easy to persuade him that trading with Taiwan would be more profitable than owning it or destroying it. No arguing with a dictator however.
Besides, Putin has warned us that if we start winning his war, he will just nuke us.
Seems to have worked for him. I wonder what Xi thinks of that plan.