Meanwhile, back in Ireland
We’ve gotten to another point where it’s hard for me to turn on the TV. I know this will have to change, but for now I’ll go back to one of my favorite topics, the fate of Ireland under austerity.
As I suggested might happen, Ireland in its 2015-2016 immigration statistical year (May-April) was finally able to end its net emigration. According to the Central Statistical Office’s August report, 3100 more people came to Ireland than left during 2015-2016. This was the first time since 2008-2009 that Ireland had net in-migration. Still, among the Irish themselves, net emigration continued in 2015-2016, with 10,700 more leaving than returning.
The unemployment rate declined again from Q3 2015 to Q3 2016, from from 9.3% to 8.0%. The monthly unemployment rate for January 2017 dropped to 7.1%. And yet…
While Q3 2016 employment increased by 57,500 to 2,040,500, this remains 5.6% below its Q1 2008 peak of 2,160,681. Things are finally getting better, but Ireland is still not all the way back.
By contrast, currency-devaluing, banker-jailing Iceland long ago passed its old employment peak (create your own table), which was 181,900 in August 2008. Employment reached a low point of 163,900 in February 2011, first surpassed the old peak in February 2015 (182,900), and in December 2016 stood at 194,400, or 6.9% above the pre-crisis peak.
Oh, and Iceland’s unemployment rate? A seasonally adjusted 2.9% in December 2016, and only 2.6% without seasonal adjustment.
Maybe one day we’ll talk about the Celtic Tiger again. But Ireland, hamstrung by its inability to devalue and by harsh austerity measures, shows lingering weakness, masked by emigration, to this day. Iceland, by contrast, is the one looking like a Nordic Tiger.
Cross-posted from Middle Class Political Economist.
Meanwhile, back in the US that did have the ability to devalue its currency, check out what happened during the Great Recession. We also didn’t touch our bankers. How has our recovery been?
As an aside, it is interesting that Trump has been jawboning the dollar down. Between that and his reciprocity-oriented trade stance, one might suspect that he believes that the policies followed by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan from 1950-1980 and China from around 1970 to now could possibly generate growth and jobs.
The increase in immigration is likely due to many of my US friends seeking dual citizenship to honor their Irish roots. Some actually are considering retirement to Ireland, but most are doing it to honor their heritage.
If I were Ireland, I would not be planning on a tax windfall from new immigrants.
Tom:
Welcome to AB. 1st comments go to moderation. The last time I met Irish was at the Stuttgart Beer Fest. They were talking of a deficit of a few hundred million which in comparison to the US was “nothing.” I suggest we could write a check to pay it off in the US. Maybe we should of done so.
Enjoy the comments . ..
Tom, personally I doubt there are many Americans with dual citizenship (I’m in that category, too) that are moving there, but the Irish data do not break out migrants by country beyond the EU. But a net of 13,100 non-EU persons moved to Ireland in 2015-2016, way more than total net immigration, so it’s not impossible.
I and most of my eligible cousins have Irish citizenship now (through our grandparents), but none of us have immigrated to Ireland. We haven’t even had a family reunion there since 2000.