Why did the Clinton campaign say earlier this month that Trump’s statement that he plans to partially default on the national debt could work? (And, yes, that, as the NYT mentions today, is what the Clinton campaign said.)
Debates have broken out in Mrs. Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters over the best approach to take. Some advisers worry that by running against Mr. Trump as she would a traditional Republican candidate, Mrs. Clinton is actually making the reality television star appear more legitimate.
This month, when Mr. Trump suggested he would reduce the national debt by negotiating with creditors to accept something less than full payment, economists dismissed the idea as fanciful. Hours later, the Clinton campaign sent out a news release about Mr. Trump’s “risky” idea of defaulting on the national debt with a response from Gene Sperling, formerly a senior economic adviser to both President Obama and Mr. Clinton, condemning the idea. The seriousness of the campaign’s response seemed to elevate a nonsensical proposal.
The seriousness of the campaign’s response seemed to elevate a nonsensical proposal. “That is a danger,” said Dan Pfeiffer, a former senior adviser to Mr. Obama. “You have to take the threat of Trump becoming president seriously, but you shouldn’t treat him as a serious person.”
— Hillary Clinton Struggles to Find Footing in Unusual Race, Amy Chozick, Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin, New York Times, today
Oh. Brother. The Clinton campaign characterized Trump’s statement that he wants to partially default on the national debt as “risky.” In other words, they said that, yeah, this would be a big risk, but there’s also the possibility that it could work!
Actually, when I read that sentence this morning in the Times I did remember reading an article about that response by the Clinton campaign shortly after it was made. I remember thinking, “Risky? Seriously? Risky? Not absurd? Not a guarantee of global economic collapse and immediate major increase in the Treasury debt needed to pay off current debt that Trump was agreeing to pay off immediately in this refinance scheme? No, merely risky?”
I also remember reading the Sperling response, which was concise, very good and easily understandable, I thought. But, why the borderline-comical characterization of this proposal as risky? Why not say it would be certain to cause global economic collapse and, by its own terms as a refinancing scheme, would require the borrowing of the money to pay the debt at far higher interest rates than the current full-faith-and-credit debt is borrowed at?
And, why wasn’t the candidate herself on television, immediately, saying these things?
What Trump actually said was that he was going to renegotiate with creditors. It took me—me, a complete novice in anything resembling high finance—only a few hours after Trump’s comments hit he internet for me to post what I thought (okay, probably incorrectly, but it did make the point) was a hilarious parody of Trump sitting across the negotiating table from all the owners, worldwide, of Treasury securities, their lawyers and financial advisors in tow, negotiating reduced interest rates on these securities.
Okay, I posted this on an economics blog. But the points on all of this could be made—and were made, by Sperling and many others—clearly, understandably, and easily.
The Times article quotes Clinton campaign official Jennifer Palmieri as telling one of the reporters on this article “Each tactic we use is designed for a particular purpose to either engage the press or reach a certain audience.” The article summarized Palmieri’s explanation, paraphrasing her as saying that “[a]ny aggressive approach by Mrs. Clinton is potentially dangerous, however, because recent polls show she is viewed negatively by a majority of the electorate.”
What Palmieri apparently didn’t explain (at least it’s not reported) is why a response to Trump’s outlandish proposal as merely risky was expected possibly to engage the press, presumably because it was not. It was instead, I guess, intended to reach a certain audience: the audience that political consultants for both parties long have been telling their clients respond negatively to candidates who seem “risky” or to policy proposals that seem (and may well be) risky. “Risky” is one of the buzzwords that focus groups show should be used as often as possible to characterize the opponent or a policy proposal of the opponent.
And since the Clinton campaign limits its responses and campaign rhetoric to focus-grouped buzzwords and clichés, and “risky” seemed the most apropos of the words and phrases on the be-sure-to-use list, “risky” it was.
Good grace. Any aggressive approach by Mrs. Clinton is potentially dangerous, because recent polls show she is viewed negatively by a majority of the electorate? Any aggressive approach by Mrs. Clinton is potentially dangerous, because recent polls show she is viewed negatively by a majority of the electorate? Explaining to the public how ludicrous Trump’s partial-default proposal is, and how stupefyingly ignorant he is of even basic public-finance and economics mechanisms, is potentially dangerous, because recent polls show she is viewed negatively by a majority of the electorate?
Educating the public about Trump’s actual fiscal-policy proposals and matching them with Romney’s and Paul Ryan’s would be potentially dangerous, because recent polls show she is viewed negatively by a majority of the electorate?
If so, then Clinton should throw in the towel. She and Sanders could ask their delegates to come together to nominate Warren, or something. ‘Cuz this ain’t working, folks.
If U.S. Treasury notes, bills, etc. (that is how the debt is accrued) could be renegotiated than who is to say where it stops. The Social Security Trust Fund assets are also U.S. Treasury notes. Major banks, and all sorts of institutions hold U.S. Treasury notes. The concept of such a renegotiation of U.S. Treasury notes is naive at best. Actually it’s rather stupid. But it is classic Trump. Inane to the nth degree.
Neither Clinton, nor Sanders should he some how come out ahead in the primary, should campaign against Trump. He doesn’t care about the truth and such a debate is useless. It is the Democratic oriented PACs that should be leading the attack on Trump with ads highlighting just how idiotic Trump’s positions and statements have been. They should also be running videos of well known Republican conservatives, (no not the Bush family, nor Romney) like Rand Paul giving their previous takes on Trump. That any have back peddled on those attack comments is irrelevant. The entire Republican leadership has made derogatory comments about Trump. They should be broadcast frequently as the general election pulls close to Election Day. Juxtapose Trump’s ridiculous comments with simple, clear statements of facts showing the absurdities of Trump’s positions. End with, “Is Donald Trump the Manchurian Candidate?”
Granted that Trump’s followers are themselves blinded by discomfort and bigotry. They are still only a small percentage of the total electorate. We can only hope that H. Clinton won’t stick her foot into her mouth. She has also been guilty of foot in mouth disease too often. I think that Sanders is the better candidate, but also there are (or were) plenty of popular, high office Democrats that would have been better still.
Perhaps the most terrifying thing about Trump is the way he signifies the completion of a genuinely disturbing trend in our political system. The gradual abandonment of policy and governing philosophy to pure personality. In my view both Clinton then GWB started the ball rolling (downhill?) the former with his sexual scandal the latter with his brush clearing “guy you most want to have a beer with” regular guy schtick, culminating in the pure political response to Katrina. It was policy free all politics all the time by that point. Why else appoint a purely partisan hack like Rove to lead the near invisible “reconstruction” efforts?
While I might acknowledge Obama’s efforts to resist if not reverse that trend with the ACA, the second term hasn’t produced much policy emphasis I can discern. In fact I would argue that the disastrous sequester proposal and accommodation by his administration pretty much prove the opposite. A complete abandonment of governing philosophy at least with regard to budgetary and economic matters.
So here we are. With HRC leading a 20 year old campaign against the US’s first post-policy presidential personality, Donald J Trump. Lord help us.
Since we are by no means at risk of default, and our loans are on very good terms at very low rates, talk of “renegotiating” our loans is ridiculous at best.
Once again, I rather plaintively whine that Clinton and supporters seem incredibly averse to giving any reasons to vote for her rather than simply to vote against Trump. Republicans have made public debt a centerpiece of recent elections. Is it impossible for the Democrats to have a short, clear, snappy response on the debt? Yeah, use Trump’s idiocy to get into the discussion, and then tell people why they should vote Democratic. “Trump’s being ridiculous. I’d use public investments the way you use a mortgage, to build a better life for the future. . . .” or whatever.
But the group that thinks “Dangerous Donald” or “Poor Donald” is a ticket to the White House probably thinks I’m being silly.
nihil:
Why would anyone take up a BS statement and argue with a loon? Here is what one other poster said on the debt. “The concept of such a renegotiation of U.S. Treasury notes is naive at best. Actually it’s rather stupid. But it is classic Trump. Inane to the nth degree.
Neither Clinton, nor Sanders should he some how come out ahead in the primary, should campaign against Trump. He doesn’t care about the truth and such a debate is useless. It is the Democratic oriented PACs that should be leading the attack on Trump with ads highlighting just how idiotic Trump’s positions and statements have been.”
Swift boat the turkey as this is what he deserves other than giving him credibility by answering his silliness seriously.
Well then, from a substantive point of view (largely irrelevant in today’s political atmosphere), there’s always the 14th Amendment that says you can’t do that except when President Obama listens to Lawrence Tribe who’s never been elected to anything. As many of us have urged, he really ought to get a new lawyer.
Jack,
I think you are entirely correct. Any and every time HRC is asked to comment on Trump’s latest lie-absurdity-stupidity she ought simply to say. “Trump is a fraud” — and then turn the attacks over to her allies. Never, ever engage him. Never be suckered into his game. Never play into his hands. “Donald Trump is a fraud.”
The best way to win that game is not to play on his terms. He is a fraud. Treat him that way.
ms 57:
You are about the 4th(?) one to say this. You do not argue with fools muchless give them credibility by doing so.
Amateur Socialist,
I think you have missed some of Obama’s accomplishments.
The Affordable Care Act! I think any reference to it ought to be accompanied with the exclamation point. The Affordable Care Act! It had been on the table since 1912, talked about by Dems and Reps for a century. He passed it.
He has signed executive actions strongly curbing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the children of undocumented immigrants (and their parents) from deportation. He has effected rapprochement with Cuba, ending a half-century of American stupidity, and with Iran! (another exclamation point), heading off certain military attacks had the neo-cons been in charge and avoiding, at least for now, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. He has appropriately distanced us from the right-wing Netanyahu and the Saudis. He vetoed the XL pipeline. He supported and signed the Paris climate accords. He has appointed two liberals to the Supreme Court who contributed to the legalization of gay marriage.
That’s a pretty amazing record.
“Risky”
Bev
” Should I convince superdelegates to vote for me when [Clinton] won that state overwhelmingly? No, I shouldn’t.
But we won states like Washington, Alaska, Hawaii, New Hampshire in landslide victories. And I do believe that the superdelegates, whether it’s Clinton’s or mine, states that we won, superdelegates in states where [a] candidate wins a landslide victory should listen to the people in those states and vote for the candidate chosen by the people.”
Bernie Sanders
This is becoming beyond absurd.
EMichael,
How exactly is it absurd to argue that “superdelegates in states where [a] candidate wins a landslide victory should listen to the people in those states and vote for the candidate chosen by the people?”
That is called representative democracy. To argue that it is absurd is anti-democratic.
No, what is absurd is to argue that ” “superdelegates in states where [a] candidate wins a landslide victory should listen to the people in those states and vote for the candidate chosen by the people” while omitting the those state delegates from the process where the results were not “overwhelming”.
In those cases, if the results were close(I guess someone in the Sanders campaign will be the person to determine how close is close), then the delegates should ignore the results of the primary and vote for the person they think has the best chance to beat Trump (oh, and btw the Sanders campaign has the results of ten or twenty mostly useless polls on that subject that allows delegates to ignore what the voters in their states wanted).
That is as absurd as trying to make a story out of “risky”.
You gotta at least come up with something that is consistent. This latest is certainly not there.
The statement that it was “risky” is weak tea, indeed — which is Beverly’s point.
The consistency you seek is found in the idea, as I said, of representative democracy. Regardless of the size of the vote or the numbers by which he won, why shouldn’t “superdelegates in states where [a] candidate wins a … victory should listen to the people in those states and vote for the candidate chosen by the people.”
You don’t answer that question. Surely intellectual consistency demands the answer, “nothing is wrong with it, that’s the way representative democracy works.”
ms 57:
Who knows, maybe super delegates will consider such when the primaries are over. Till that point, all Bev and Sanders are doing is stirring the pot. Neither does a few polls make a winner. If you read Sam Wang at Princeton Consortium, polling now and historically has been highly inaccurate with “hyuge” swings. It will be a couple of months before it starts to settle down again. Finally if you do want to look at polling for HRC and Sanders, HRC and Sanders have it hands down over Trump. We have two good candidates which Repubs lack. Huff does a good job of collecting poll data.
Um, Ms?
I am not saying that the people’s votes should not be considered by the super delegates unless the vote was “overwhelming”, Sanders is saying that.
One guy says “risky” in one case and that is weak tea. Geez
Y’know, it is past time for people to realize that neither Clinton or Sanders is the nominee, and neither is running against Trump at this point in time.
We have seen an endless barrage of silly little columns like this one that criticizes Clinton for not running a strong campaign against Trump written by people who insist(rightly) that the Dem Primary is not over.
oops
My apologies. I forgot the link:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/sanders-says-nominating-process-not-rigged-yet.html
Therein are links to the transcripts of Sanders’ comments.
To challenge what you say about “overwhelming” would require me to define overwhelming (to your satisfaction), then look up the results from those states. Let’s leave it at victory.
You continue to say that the primary is over. I’m pretty sure the convention hasn’t yet taken place, that no vote has been cast, and that there are still primaries to be held. You want to declare victory while the enemy is still on the field.
This from the Guardian this morning: “he has more than 55,000 volunteers in the [CA] who have made more than two million phone calls, according to the campaign.”
“His rallies, attended by tens of thousands, sometimes more, certainly don’t feel like those of a losing candidate.”
Should they all just sit down and shut up? Hillary is ahead by just 256 delegates — not counting the superdelegates, who, as Bernie argues, ought to pay heed to the voters in their states. Perfectly reasonable.
Let Hillary win the nomination first. Without the superdelegates undemocratic commitment to the “Anointed One” this would be a tight race — one which would not be determines until the last primary was held and will not be ratified before the convention is held. Let it play out, then fall in behind the nominee and kick Trump’s ass.
MS,
Read the comments by Sanders yesterday.
Ms,
How does my post that says “We have seen an endless barrage of silly little columns like this one that criticizes Clinton for not running a strong campaign against Trump written by people who insist(rightly) that the Dem Primary is not over.”
lead to a reply from you that I think the primary is over?
Not a big fan of straw men.
run75441
I feel as though I’m through the looking glass. If you believe that Clinton’s stating a positive reason for voting for her constitutes engaging with Trump, then I guess you look for different things in a candidate than I do. Maybe not saying that you’re for anything will work. The way the campaign is going, I hope so.
nihil:
You do not give buffoons credibility by addressing them seriously. Jack has it right and I and two others agree Trump should not be addressed in a serious manner. Let the PACs run attack ads on him. He is lying and making things up. We have two good candidates.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2016_05/the_huffington_post_and_donald060688.php Martin Longman, The Huffingtom Post and Trump, Washington Monthly
She ought to come out and say, up front, to everyone — “we all know the kind of campaign Trump runs – get personal, call names, ping-pong on policies, and play to the crowd. That is not a man who belongs in the White House. The Republicans nominated him, let them deal with him. I’m running for the Presidency of the United States. Mr. Trump is running for The #1 rated show. Governing is reality. Primetime TV is not.
I won’t engage him in his antics. I will bring my message to the people.
ms 57:
Three great commenters who make me think. I am waiting for this to end between Sanders and HRC. Partial to HRC; but, I will vote for Sanders also. It appears for Sanders to be a matter of convenience as he is no Democrat. When I am gonna win I am a chameleon and my color will change to suit the environment. I wish Bill would shut up and fade into the woodwork as his time has come and past. There is a time when the Pres talks to the visitor and a time when he sends his Secretary of State. This time calls for sending in the clowns. Trump is not worthy of either Secretary or Pres whether it be Sanders or HRC.
nihil:
It is good to see you here again. ““When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’
’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.”
I am not always right; but, I am honest.
“You do not argue with fools muchless give them credibility by doing so.”
In a one-on-one discussion at the family reunion, you are right.
The problem is that foolish ideas in a public forum need to be refuted. There are many fools willing to follow a fool. (“Who’s the more foolish, the fool, or the fool who follows him?”) Now doing so is how we ended up with fools running the country.
Typos corrected: Not doing so is how we ended up with fools’ running the country.