South Carolina: Bush and Carson Territory

You heard it here first. And before you laugh see that I pretty much nailed New Hampshire in the post and comments Christie is Done. But Wow! What a Parting Shot! where I only made two real mistakes. I overestimated Carson’s numbers and slightly underestimated Bush’s. So this is a corrective of sorts.

Carson never had a chance in New Hampshire. And so didn’t try. His hope was always to hit South Carolina with the God Botherer lane cleared out. And he has got that, Huckabee and Santorum are gone and of the main contenders only Cruz is competing for Evangelicals as such. I mean a lot of Fundies might like Trump but nobody with a lick of sense believes he is really Saved. Or even thinking he needs to be Saved. Whereas Carson is a full fledged member of the tribe. I may think him a Whack-a-Doodle but don’t underestimate his appeal to the Born Again. Sleeping Gentle Ben has a clear track into a top four result that propels him right into the South dominated March contests.

Which brings us to Bush. If it hadn’t of been for the Christie-Rubio murder-suicide I would have put paid to his candidacy. And even I thought Rubio would limp into fourth in New Hampshire. But Bush did pull down fourth and all he needs to do to get at least a fourth in South Carolina is to finish ahead of Rubio and Kasich. And Kasich has a lot of ground game to make up.

So here is my order of finish in South Carolina: Trump, Bush, Cruz, Carson. With Rubio and Kasich battling for fifth but both clinging on until March 15th when both Florida and Ohio vote.

Obviously I may have this wrong. A perfectly plausible order is Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Carson, Bush. I just see structural advantages for Carson and Bush that are not reflected in their surface campaigning. Which frankly has sucked. Your Views not only MAY Vary but almost cetainly WILL Vary. So treat this as an Open Elections Thread

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