Netanyahu Lied so far no one Died
February 23 Al Jazeera and The Guardian reported leaked memos from Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency to the South African intelligence agency. The memos contradicted claims of fact that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had recently made in his UN Speech (the one with the illustration of cartoon bomb with a burning fuse). This post mainly points to an excellent article by J.J. Goldberg in The Jewish Daily Forward (h/t Josh Marshall)
The heart of Netanyahu’s U.N. speech concerned Iran’s progress in enriching uranium to weapons-grade purity, which he said was only months away from completion. Of the three stages of enrichment — refining raw ore to 5% pure uranium, then refining it again to 20% and finally to bomb-grade 90% purity — Iran had “completed the first stage” and was “well into the second stage,” which would be finished “by next spring, at most by next summer,” meaning 2013.
“From there,” he said, “it’s only a few months, possibly a few weeks before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.”And once Iran had a bomb, he said, it would use it, because its “apocalyptic leaders” believe a nuclear holocaust would bring the rapture, when “their brand of radical Islam will rule the earth.”
The Mossad memo, dated less than a month earlier, said that “even though Iran has accumulated enough 5% enriched uranium for several bombs, and has enriched some of it to 20%, it does not appear ready to enrich it to higher levels.” For one thing, the 20% stockpile was “not increasing” because quantities were being “allocated” to the civilian-based Tehran Research Reactor.
Second, enrichment to weapons-grade, the third stage, wouldn’t be possible until work was finished on a separate facility, the IR40 heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak. “We assess,” the memo said, “that this will not happen before mid-2014” — a full year after Netanyahu said the quickie third stage would begin.
Netanyahu was taking advantage of the fact that Mossad communications to him are top secret to lie about the intelligence he was receiving. He didn’t contest Mossad’s analysis, he claimed it was different from what it was.
I just want to add some background in case someone doesn’t find “mid 2014” reassuring. Construction of the Arac IR40 heavy-water reactor has been suspended as part of the interim agreement between Iran and the group of six (UN security council permanent members plus Germany). The Mossad memo asserts that Uranium enrichment is not the path to an Iranian bomb which, if it were made, would be made with Plutonium. Also the stockpile of 20% enriched Uranium is no longer merely “not increasing” — it was reduced due to the interim agreement.
While producing the weapons grade fissionable material is the slow and difficult part of making an atomic bomb, it isn’t the only challenge — it is also necessary to develop the ability to shape the fissionable material into an extremely uniform sphere. Years ago, the US intelligence community concluded that Iran had ceased efforts to do that.
Netanyahu’s interpretation of the evidence is fundamentally different from the interpretation of the vast majority of experts. This has been clear for years. The new and important (but unsurprising) news is that he lied about what those experts were telling him.
update: minds think alike “Netanyahu’s US speech a ‘blessing’ for Iran talks? ì”
Iran has been six months away from developing nuclear weapons for over thirty years now. I fully expect they will continue to be six months away for as long as it takes to convince people they need to be invaded. Then it will turn out that they weren’t working on nuclear weapons at all.
The old weapons of mass destruction theory except no one is biting.
What’s truly sad is that this information regarding the discrepancy between Netanyahu’s public assertions and his own intelligence has not been used by any of the MSM to query Republican members of Congress about his upcoming speech. One would have thought this would be a major problem for people who had invited him to make a “presentation,” particularly since it reflects on their own statements. Of course, some folks might just not care so long as the speech is made, the sound bites recorded, and the media event broadcast.
I would have been amazed and incredulous about this, a dozen years ago. Back then I had some doubts about the Iraq WMD story by the Bush Administration – a couple things Colin Powell (whom I then respected) said at the UN didn’t sound right to me, but I told myself, “The Bush administration can’t be lying about this, because they must know that if we invade Iraq and there are no WMD, they won’t get a second term and will go down in history as liars.”
JimV,
Well, you were half right.
Welcome Hawker.
As a first time commenter your comment got automatically referred to moderation. Sorry for the delay in publication.
I would have been amazed and incredulous about this, fifty years ago. Back then I had some doubts about the Gulf of Tonkin story by the Johnson Administration-a couple of things Johnson said during his August 4th address to the nation didn’t sound right to me, but I told myself, “The Johnson Administration can’t be lying about this, because they must know if they escalate Viet Nam into a full blown war and 50,000 American soldiers die all over a lie the Democrats will be destroyed as a political party. And they’ll go down in history as liars.”
I wrote my congress critters telling them I would prefer they not attend the joint Netanyahu liars’ session. My words were less direct.
I got a reply from one tea bagger senator, whom I knew to be a drone for AIPAC.
“I am committed to the safety of our nation and to the security of Israel-our closest and most reliable ally in the Middle East. The U.S. and Israel are linked by shared national security interests and support for universal democratic and human rights principles.”
One; there is no treaty of alliance between the US and Israel. Two; reliable includes slaughtering Muslims. Three; human rights for Palestinians in Israel is oxymoron.
They all lie!