Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Actually, "The Field" is Odds-on

Via Mankiw, who notes that “among economists listed” at PinnacleSports, Martin Feldstein is the favorite. I was going to snark that that must be because they have a lousy field for bettors, but Mankiw links to Ladbrokes, too, where people rationally expect that declaring Economics once and for all irrelevant (i.e., giving the award to […]

The NBER ‘Family Members’ who are part of the McCain ‘100’

Because Hilzoy asked, and I agree with Brad DeLong that it’s not an unreasonable question. No guarantee the 11 are on this list, of course. This is a simple cross-reference of “The McCain ‘100’” and “NBER Family Members.” There are 14 Faculty Research Fellows, 13 Research Associates, and 2 OLs on this list.* *I can’t […]

How NOT to Manage a Taxpayer-Funded Bailout

UPDATE: Brad DeLong notes that there is no requirement, under the bailout bill, for halfway measures and delays: Every other country that is in this business is nationalizing the banks and injecting capital into them. Only the United States is operating on the asset side along. It’s unlikely to work, and Neel is now responsible. […]

Wells Fargo: the FDIC didn’t blink, so Paulson intervened?

Stormy noted that Wells Fargo’s bill is based in part on “exploiting a presumed tax loophole.” I forgot to ask the question one should always ask when confronted with a Chess Ending problem, “What was the move before?” In this case, we know (from A C Shareholder’s comment) that Wells had been discussions to purchase […]

Elevated from Comments: The Other Half of the Answer

A detail of tax law makes all the difference in Stormy’s post below. Buy the whole thing, get the tax break. Buy part of it, you don’t.* The other half of the answer is that “timing is everything.” And playing Chicken with the FDIC often has Unintended Consequences.** So let’s turn the continuous-not-discrete timeline details […]

The Original Bailout Bill, or Ms. Smith Goes to Washington*

by Ken Houghton Prefatory Note: I wrote this several hours ago, but we had enough great posts this morning from Robert, Spencer, cactus, and rdan that I scheduled it instead of posting directly. In the interim, the House approved the second bailout bill, which I am already on record as opposing, for reasons similar to […]

Bailout, Round 2: Misplaced Optimism

by Ken Houghton Paul Krugman presents the optimistic version*: The House will probably vote on Friday on the latest version of the $700 billion bailout plan — originally the Paulson plan, then the Paulson-Dodd-Frank plan, and now, I guess, the Paulson-Dodd-Frank-Pork plan (it’s been larded up since the House rejected it on Monday). I hope […]

If not now, when? If now, why? Or, to quote the wrong holiday, Ma nishta…?

I posted this in comments at Lance’s place, but figure to run it up the flag here as well. Speaking as one who supported Monday’s bill and generally opposes today’s, here’s the high-level list of reasons: It wasn’t going to authorize the whole $700B, but about$250B, with renewal (or scrapping) to follow. (That Henry Paulson […]