…of technology use, we draw upon signal detection theory (Green and Swets 1988, Wicknes 2002, MacMillan 2002, Correll et al. 2002, 2014) to propose a simple, stylized model for a…

I have posted this model of core inflation before. Core inflation on y-axis. Corporate-after-tax profit rate minus nominal rates on x-axis. The model implies that inflation depends upon the difference…

…in assumptions on many elements of the climate system that we cannot model — and you know what they all are. We cannot model aerosols; we cannot model clouds, which…

…better model out there, search theory, with fairly straightforward intuitions and tons of available data. Anyone who waves an S&D model at me and makes claims about the labor market…

…to inform us. S&D is simply the wrong model, based on a failure to distinguish between offers and transactions. Fortunately, there’s a better model out there, search theory, with fairly…

…even suggest it has a cold ? I think the problem is that it was critiqued and improved until we arrived at a model which is easy to reconcile with…

…safe for Republicans. To maintain control of the House, Republicans would only need to win ten of the remaining 61 seats in the upcoming 2018 election. Districts labeled safe for…

…also argued that capital income — income from things like capital gains, corporate profits, dividends, etc. — should be taxed, which broke with previous models of optimal tax theory. (Our…

…stands, that’s the role significance plays. If a finding holds with p < .05 it can then be examined for its provenance (data, model selection) and magnitude; if not it…

…PE is now at 19.6, almost exactly where my model implies it should be. As the chart shows it is right in the middle of my estimated fair value band…