…Now the examples present me with a bit of a challenge. I have claimed that I can get any result I want out of an economic model in which people…

…appear harmful, not beneficial. Mark-to-model needs to be revised drastically to require complete openness about individual positions being marked to model (not just aggregate information) and complete transparency or even…

…the simplified example and “you.”) But ex ante is not ex poste, and reasonable plans at the beginning may be altered as time goes by and “randomness” affects the model….

…to be true, but as a default assumption so that you can write a model in which you relax one of the default assumptions but not the others. It is…

…it is agreed that they are rejected by the relevant data. The response is that “all models are false” — (I am quoting Victor Rios Rull but I could be…

…that Brad’s model, in which the change is caused by a reduction in the value of trained workers perceived by managers, should imply a prediction of a recovery with unusually…

…a model which can fit all macroeconomic data and which could be falsified by, say, post WWII US time series. Keynes specifically says that he can’t make predictions on a…

…the output of the model must be run through an H.P: filter too. Is there any excuse for not running the output of models through H.P. filters. Let me quote…

…inside or outside the range of these estimates. For the first time, this Trustees Report presents the results of a new model, based on stochastic modeling techniques, that estimates a…

…are clearly dangerous, but at least they know the silly assumptions they made when writing their models. In particular they must understand the fact that quantitative models require parameter estimates…