Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

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The Downside of Devaluation

…it will have a substantial impact on asset market prices, in particular the bond market. Of course, asset market prices matter to the output markets, too… imagine some of the…

Overreaction

…on its debt. Note that this is not to say that holding US government debt is riskless. I do believe that owners of US government bonds are facing more and…

Buttonwood Pessimism

…markets too. Can the fur and fury be far off? High oil prices, a weakening dollar, troubling signs from the bond markets… all are adding to suspicions of a looming…

Postcards from Old Europe – Thank God for Alan Greenspan The week which is ending today hasn’t brought us much in the way of hard economic news. Alan Greenspan’s testimony…

A Fading Recovery

…be explicitly temporary, to avoid spooking the bond market and driving interest rates higher. The tax cuts would have to be directed toward the middle class, and spending increases would…

bond markets. The rise in interest rates was so sharp and fast that the US economy slowed dramatically in 1995, and nearly went into recession. Once again, Greenspan had to…

Higher Rates in Europe, Too? The markets took to heart Greenspan’s comments about the danger of deflation receding, and bond yields rose to their highest level in months. Some of…

…The bond market is dutifully plunging in response. Note one interesting thing: this follows closely on the heels of several reports that consumer confidence has been falling. Add another data…