…government debt (especially over 90% of gross domestic product) is bad for growth was published in 2010 by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt” (ungated…

…output growth. Here is chart for China’s annual GDP growth rate at constant prices. Real output growth has been slowing down. The 9.5% actual rate of real output growth is…

…investment which causes lower growth. Back to atheoretic data analysis — deficits are strongly negatively correlated with growth. Of course the case against supply side voodoo is very familiar to…

…recovers from recessions, the lion’s share of income growth goes to the wealthiest 10% of families. Notably, the entire 2001-2007 recovery produced almost no income growth for the bottom 90%…

by Hale Stewart (originally published at Bonddad blog) Labor Market Slack and Weak Wage Growth From the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook: Sluggishness in core inflation in advanced economies—a surprise…

…distinction is important because the wage growth of job-switchers tends to be a better cyclical indicator than overall wage growth. In particular, the median wage growth of people who change…

…flows and growth depends on the form of capital. FDI flows possess a robust relationship with growth, while the linkage with other equity is smaller and less stable. The impact…

A (mainly) business cycle explanation for this year’s better jobs growth The pace of job creation declined from averaging over 200,000 a month between Q2 2014 through Q2 2015 to…

Real wage growth continued to improve in February Now that we have February’s CPI (up +0.2%), let’s update nominal and real wage growth. First, here is a graph of nominal…

Based on my wage equation, last January I warned to expect a sharp acceleration in wage growth in 2018. Now that wage growth has risen from 2.4% in 2017 to…