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Evaluating the Soft Landing Scenario

…a gradual improvement in the US’s CA deficit. The Asian CBs can keep BWII going for a while longer, if they want… but the US’s CA deficit will not fall…

Soft Landing or Hard: Rip van Winkle Wakes Up

…from the reasons for the current account deficit during Clinton’s second term. By definition, the current account deficit is the difference between investment and national savings. During Clinton’s second term,…

A Tale of Two Landings: Part I

deficit to around $750bn, or over 6% of GDP. Yet private capital flows into the US slow because of fears of further dollar depreciation. Asian CBs must therefore buy even…

If the Chinese Would Only Eat Stock Certificates

…between current account deficits over five years ago. The average investment to GDP ratio over the 2001 to 2004 was relatively low so the current account deficit reflected a very…

Bush: Budgetary Tough-Guy

…such budget strictness emanating from Bush, we can rest easy about the budget deficit. At this rate, I’m sure that the budget deficit stands a pretty good chance of being…

Schwarzenegger on fiscal restraint learns from Bush

…$8.1 billion budget deficit next year without raising taxes. Last year, an estimated $17 billion deficit was closed by spending cuts mixed with more than $7 billion in loans, one-time…

Bush the Economist

…the trade deficit,” he joked. If Bush ever listened to his economic advisors he would understand that the trade deficit has nothing to do with Americans’ preference for imported goods…

Dear Angry Bear

…(payroll taxes) = $1.4 trillion Total money out is $1.4 trillion + $600b = $2 trillion. Deficit = $600b (Not $800b!) So while the operating deficit is $800b (see 3,…

The Saving Problem

…the past few years. This low savings rate is one of the two primary contributors to the US’s massive current account deficit (the federal budget deficit is the other culprit)….

Yes, We Can Balance the Budget Next Year

The Bush administration and some congressional allies are considering ways to keep Social Security privatization from adding to the budget deficit: simply put the expenses that necessarily come with privatization…