Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

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The President met Mr Buffet

…fall, billionaire investor Warren E. Buffet, Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein and William H. Gross, the managing director of PIMCO, the largest bond fund in the world, approached Treasury…

The Two Sides of AIG

…does not hold the underlying bond/exposure). Before you say, “they can’t do that”, recall the effective confiscation of gold in the Great Depression. rationing, wage and price controls, the suspension…

"Price Revelation" is mysticism.

…particular, that the fact that the market for CDSs has higher trading volume than the market for the underlying bonds is a very bad thing. I forget where someone asks…

Social Security In a Time of Recession

…exactly the face value and the yield is exactly equal to the stated interest rate. Which means that the existing portfolio is sheltered from fluctuations in the outside bond market….

Bear Market Shading

…wonder investors had irrational exuberance in the late 1990s. It was part of the great moderation that was due in part to the secular drop in bond yields from the…

Ratings, Stocks, and Credibility

…investment-grade bonds is 6.47%. Now, in sane circumstances, people would be saying, “Oh, but that’s because GE will, certainly, cut its dividend. And investors know that.” However, CEO Jeffrey Immelt…

The Long Wave

by spencer For several years bond yields were on a glide path well above the inverse of the 1950-1980 yield increase–the dotted line versus the solid line. I thought it…

Fixing Monopolistic Utilities

…that bond buyers like to see (as noted), and reduces “performance”-related bonuses. Ex-post clean up and rate increases are always easier to justify (they MUST occur), and they are counted…

Reads of the Day for the start of 2009

…look at the spreads of various debt products, you can see that the market was doing that type of job even in 2007. For instance, the debt market priced [“rated”]…

WAPO on AIG

…by the bond-rating firms, sent a resounding signal to clients that they could always sleep well at night, that AIG was in no danger of failing. The more secure a…