Good news from the employment report: workers are finally getting raises! When it comes to jobs, if there is one trend that really set apart 2018 from any prior year…

Leading scenes from the employment report not so positive I seem to have been the only person to pick up on the weakness in the underlying leading aspects of last…

March jobs report: good nowcast, concerning forecast HEADLINES: +196,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8% U6 underemployment rate unchanged at 7.3% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or…

…points. Both the unemployment and underemployment rates rose. The participation’s rates and employment to population ratios were either flat monthly or flat YoY. So, bottom line, this was mainly a…

August jobs report: for once, the underwhelming headline masked very good internals HEADLINES: +130,000 jobs added (+105,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.2% to…

…year history. 4. Over that 70+ year history, it has an excellent record as a short leading indicator for employment and recessions. That’s the kind of track record I like….

August JOLTS report: nearly all employment measures now neutral The JOLTS report for August showed a decline in all metrics m/m as well as a slowing trend overall. To review,…

January jobs report: why I am discounting the headline strong jobs number HEADLINES: +225,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate up +0.1% to 3.6% U6 underemployment rate up +0.2% from 6.7%…

I’m back to playing with data, so there will probably be more posts coming soon. (Sorry.) Meanwhile, this one was irresistible. FRED® has a “Natural Rate of Unemployment” data series….

The 2.5 million employment gain does not look too impressive from this perspective….