April jobs report: great headlines, signs of fraying around the edges HEADLINES: +263,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% to 3.6% (new expansion low) U6 underemployment rate unchanged at…

…days. The July employment report continued a string of good headline numbers with weak leading internals. Let’s take a look. In the good news department, the U6 underemployment rate declined…

…a excellent report in almost all respects outside of the headline jobs number. New expansion lows were set for unemployment, underemployment, short term unemployment, and those who want a job…

…of 2.6%.   2022 begins with modest health employment Growth following a familiar pattern  Health care employment grew modestly in January 2022, adding 18,000 jobs. As seen throughout 2021, most…

… gain of 204,000 jobs. The above household number factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below. U3 unemployment rate declined 0.2% to 3.5%. U6 underemployment rate declined 0.3% to 6.7%….

…population. The remainder of the decline in employment, 0.30pp, is accounted for by the employment effect. This employment effect is in turn mostly explained by a decline in the employment…

…jobs, as well as temporary employment. In other words, every sector that I would expect to roll over before a recession, with the exception of total construction employment, has now…

…the profession, and school districts have struggled to replace them. Figure A shows the sharp decline in employment during the pandemic, but also highlights how school bus driver employment continues…

…Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and help us gauge how much the post-pandemic employment boom is shading towards a…

A “quick and dirty” update: the employment is historically very weak  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic reports today, and even most of the high frequency indicators won’t…