Jobless claims complete their reversion to pre-hurricane-disruptions trend

– by New Deal democrat

Initial claims have now completely reverted to trend after their recent hurricane-induced blip.

Initial claims rose 3,000 for the week to 217,000, while the four week moving average decreased -5,750 to 221,000. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -11,000 to 1.873 million:

On the more important YoY basis, initial claims were down -4.8% YoY, while the four week average was up +1.3%. Continuing claims were up 3.7%:

As indicated in the first sentence above, this is a complete return to the YoY positive to neutral trend before Hurricanes Helene and Milton hit. 

With the first two weeks of November in, let’s take a look at what this has to say about the near future trend for the monthly unemployment rate. Note this week I am presenting the YoY% changes in all three:

Since the unemployment rate was 3.8% one year ago, initial and continuing claims are forecasting roughly a 5% increase in the unemployment rate; i.e., 3.8% * 1.005 = roughly 4.0%. Anything significantly above that is likely due to the continued effects of the relative ability of new immigrants entering the job market to find their first employment.

The Bonddad Blog

“Jobless claims: back to almost completely normal and neutral,” Angry Bear by New Deal democrat