Happy Every Economic Statistic in the World Day! 1. Jobless claims continue making glacial progress

Happy Every Economic Statistic in the World Day! 1. Jobless claims continue making glacial progress

 

1. Jobless claims

Another week of glacial progress in initial jobless claims, at levels worse than the worst weekly levels of the Great Recession.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims fell by -40,263 to 786,942. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than usual at this time), claims fell by -36,000 to 837,000, another new pandemic low. The 4 week moving average also  declined by -11,750 to a new pandemic low of 867,250:

Continuing claims declined on a non-adjusted basis declined by -1,020,192 to 11,410,703. With the seasonal adjustment, they declined by -950,000 to 11,767,000. Both of these numbers are also new pandemic lows:

 

The seasonally adjusted number is now less than 1/2 of its worst level from the beginning of May, while the unadjusted number is still slightly higher than that. Both remain about 5  million higher than their worst levels during the Great Recession.

There has been only a very slow downward movement in new jobless claims over the past eight weeks. As a result, the pandemic shock recession is gradually turning into something much more chronic at very depressed levels.

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