Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are snapshots of the present; there is no guarantee they will be identical or nearly identical in early November.
A special reminder: these polls were all taken before Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, and only a few were entirely after the debate.
The best news for Trump, and the worst news for Biden, is that despite an awful debate performance, Trump’s approval *rose* 0.7% over the past week, while his disapproval dropped 0.4%. He is now near the upper end of his normal range of approval going back 3.5 years:
Why is Idaho coded blue in the senate map?
On the Senate map more and more people—not just the nut who lives next door —are not looking at Peters as” solid”. Still lean blue but Smith in Minnesota is in better shape than Peters in Michigan. It was a great week for Biden—he put to rest the “Sleepy Joe” meme and the MIC attracted nobody but his base during the debate. To the contrary he managed to push some of the few undecideds to Biden. And another week is gone and although it is not in your data it looks like a lot of low information voters have started jumping on the Biden bandwagon. It is definitely only Joe who can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at this point.