Coronavirus dashboard for September 2: Trumpism still kills
Coronavirus dashboard for September 2: Trumpism still kills
Total US cases: 6,073,840
US deaths by region:
Superficially, this looks somewhat promising, as both cases and deaths have declined. But note that cases have flattened in the past week or so without further declines. This is particularly of concern, because the number of *tests* administered *has* declined somewhat over the past few weeks, as shown in the graph below of tests vs. cases, for the total US
In the Northeast, testing has actually *increased,* without finding any more new cases (not shown). That’s good! But here are the other three regions
Tests vs. cases, Midwest:
Tests vs. cases, West:
Tests vs. cases, South
In the Midwest, testing and cases have increased essentially in tandem. In the West, testing has plateaued, while new cases have declined, so the decline is probably real.
But in the South, the decline in new cases up until several weeks ago was matched by a similar decline in tests. In other words, had testing not declined, new cases probably would not have declined either. And in the South, the “true” number of cases compared with other regions is probably still substantially higher than shown.
Short version: Trumpism still kills.
Look at US South confirmed cases and daily tests. A clear peak in cases happens and a clear decline gets going about 2 weeks prior to tests declining. A hypothesis here could be that cases drive testing. As cases go down, fewer people are tested for symptoms and fewer are tested on contact traces. If those two categories of tests dominate your test population, you would not expect tests to plateau if actual infections are decreasing. It would be interesting to see how the US West got testing to a peak level with a strong decrease in cases. Who were they testing and why? Did they loosen a “close contact” criterion to generate more testing? Incentivize more “no particular reason” tests? How do you keep testing high if the infection actually is in retreat?
September 4, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,389,057)
Deaths ( 192,111)
India
Cases ( 4,020,239)
Deaths ( 69,635)
Mexico
Cases ( 616,894)
Deaths ( 65,329)
UK
Cases ( 342,351)
Deaths ( 41,537)
France
Cases ( 309,156)
Deaths ( 30,724)
Germany
Cases ( 250,281)
Deaths ( 9,401)
Canada
Cases ( 131,124)
Deaths ( 9,141)
China
Cases ( 85,102)
Deaths ( 4,634)
September 4, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 611)
US ( 580)
Mexico ( 514)
France ( 471)
Canada ( 242)
Germany ( 112)
India ( 50)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.1%, 9.9% and 10.6% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-05/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TwT2nXdCgw/index.html
September 5, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 10 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 10 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, all from overseas, the country’s health authorities said on Saturday.
This is the 20th consecutive day without domestic transmissions in the Chinese mainland.
On Friday, there were no deaths linked to the coronavirus disease, and 21 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases stands at 85,112, and the death toll at 4,634, with 338 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-05/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TwT2nXdCgw/img/f71b0ae18c84463d8fba7c47b452e81c/f71b0ae18c84463d8fba7c47b452e81c.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-05/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TwT2nXdCgw/img/479a107bf47e41ba808e99ab2987c629/479a107bf47e41ba808e99ab2987c629.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-05/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TwT2nXdCgw/img/1465149195394baab8e709a97ed3d6b4/1465149195394baab8e709a97ed3d6b4.jpeg
There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. There has been no community or domestic coronavirus case for 20 days. Since June there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks. Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.
How Many of These 68,000 Deaths Could Have Been Avoided?
NY Times – editorial – September 5
—–
How Many Lives Would a More Normal President Have Saved?
NY Times – Ross Douthat – September 5
… David Leonhardt suggested one possible answer in a recent edition of his Morning newsletter. Right now, he noted, “the U.S. accounts for 4 percent of the world’s population, and for 22 percent of confirmed Covid-19 deaths.” But suppose that “the United States had done merely an average job of fighting the coronavirus,” meaning that our country “accounted for the same share of virus deaths as it did global population.” How many Americans would still be alive? “The answer: about 145,000” — which is to say, the large majority of the roughly 185,000 Americans reported to have died. …
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/05/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-nursing-homes-deaths.html
September 5, 2020
How Many of These 68,000 Deaths Could Have Been Avoided?
Nursing home residents and staff members account for around 40 percent of coronavirus-related deaths in the U.S. There’s no justifiable reason for that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/nyregion/nursing-homes-deaths-coronavirus.html
July 8, 2020
Does Cuomo Share Blame for 6,200 Virus Deaths in N.Y. Nursing Homes?
A state directive sent thousands of Covid-19 patients into nursing homes, but the Cuomo administration has given other reasons for the virus’s spread.
By Luis Ferré-Sadurní and Amy Julia Harris
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/nyregion/nursing-homes-coronavirus-new-york.html
May 13, 2020
Buried in N.Y. Budget: Legal Shield for Nursing Homes Rife With Virus In New York, 5,300 nursing home residents have died of Covid-19.
The nursing home lobby pressed for a provision that makes it hard for their families to sue.
By Amy Julia Harris, Kim Barker and Jesse McKinley
Clarifying the headlines:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/nyregion/nursing-homes-coronavirus-new-york.html
May 13, 2020
Buried in N.Y. Budget: Legal Shield for Nursing Homes Rife With Virus
In New York, 5,300 nursing home residents have died of Covid-19. The nursing home lobby pressed for a provision that makes it hard for their families to sue.
By Amy Julia Harris, Kim Barker and Jesse McKinley
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/nyregion/nursing-homes-coronavirus-new-york.html
May 13, 2020
Buried in N.Y. Budget: Legal Shield for Nursing Homes Rife With Virus
In New York, 5,300 nursing home residents have died of Covid-19. The nursing home lobby pressed for a provision that makes it hard for their families to sue.
By Amy Julia Harris, Kim Barker and Jesse McKinley
New Jersey, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin have also passed new measures to shield health care facilities, including nursing homes, from liability.
Nursing homes are pressing for legal protections in other states, including Florida, Pennsylvania and California.
At the epicenter of the outbreak, New York decided early to protect staff members at health care facilities, including nursing homes, from lawsuits. Mr. Cuomo issued an executive order on March 23 that shielded the workers — but not facilities — from most lawsuits related to their handling of coronavirus cases.
At the same time, the state required nursing homes to take Covid-19 patients from hospitals and also loosened record-keeping requirements for patient care, which would be crucial to any lawsuit….
anne:
So much for long term care, heh? They will take your money and if they screw up whether by accident or through negligence; they can walk away. Hospitals and doctors already had limits on being sued as specified in state law. The second part of this and not in law is, no lawyer will take a case which can not be won.
COVID vaccinations could use a nudge
via @BostonGlobe – September 4
… In one recent poll, roughly one in three Americans said they would reject a vaccine even if it was approved by the Food and Drug Administration and available for free. Another survey suggested that only half of Americans would definitely agree to be vaccinated. A survey in the United Kingdom found that just 30 percent of respondents were certain they will take a COVID-19 vaccine. (Another 43 percent said they were either very likely or fairly likely to take one.)
“I am worried that the vaccination rate is not going to be as high as everyone expects,” said Mitesh Patel, a physician and a professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. Vaccination in large numbers — perhaps 60 to 70 percent of the population — is crucial to develop herd protection and sever the chains of transmission from one person to another, particularly those who are most vulnerable.
That’s why experts in the behavioral and psychological sciences are thinking of ways to nudge people into doing the right thing.
Nudges — which are generally cheap, subtle, and quick interventions — first came under the spotlight in a 2008 book by American scholars Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein. Thaler went on to win the 2017 Nobel Prize in economics for his contributions to behavioral economics.
Governments and other institutions have nudged people in a variety of scenarios: by painting flies on the inside of urinals to encourage cleanliness, for example, or by drawing baby faces on shop shutters to discourage violence and theft. The nudge theory has, however, attracted some criticism for the implicit assumption that experts know what’s in the interest of ordinary people more than the people themselves.
Effective nudges for COVID-19 could make vaccination the default — something expected of people unless they actively opt out. That would exploit the psychological tendency for people to feel more responsible for bad outcomes that result from their actions than they do for bad outcomes that result from inaction, said Alberto Giubilini, a bioethicist at the University of Oxford.
Regularly reminding people to get vaccinated has been shown to increase vaccine uptake, at least modestly, said Noel Brewer, who studies health behavior at the University of North Carolina. Medical centers also could send their patients vaccination appointment notifications with times and dates already set, instead of asking them to choose days and times. That’s been useful in boosting flu vaccination rates. …
However…
No shortcuts on COVID-19 vaccine
via @BostonGlobe – editorial – September 3
Another day, another horrifying COVID-19 milestone: This week the number of US cases topped 6 million. The death toll now exceeds 180,000.
An equally undeniable truth is that life as we know it, as we once lived it — complete with in-person sporting events and theater and concerts — will not return until there is a safe and effective vaccine, widely trusted and administered.
And there’s certainly no shortage of effort. At least a dozen US firms are working on a COVID-19 vaccine. Two are in Phase 3 clinical trials already (one made by Moderna and the other by Pfizer/BioNTech). The so-called Oxford vaccine by AstraZeneca begins trials in the US this week, and Johnson & Johnson’s entry into the Phase 3 field is expected later this month. It is widely anticipated that a vaccine could be available by the end of this year or early 2021.
But President Trump has made it clear, in speeches and on Twitter, that his target date is some time ahead of the Nov. 3 election — an “October surprise” that would somehow make the voting public forget how his ineptitude has contributed to the spread of this dreaded virus. And now the Trump appointee at the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has alerted governors to get ready to distribute a COVID-19 vaccine by Nov. 1. …
Knowing that the coronavirus was highly infectious, knowing that select classes of people were highly susceptible to serious infection, knowing that quarantine was proper for coronavirus patients, American state political leaders or health authorities repeatedly ordered or allowed thousands of coronavirus patients to be housed and cared for along with otherwise well but vulnerable men and women.
There were 91,723 new coronavirus cases recorded in India today. Cases had climbed above 80,000 daily these last couple of weeks. The distressing point that should be made is just how undeveloped healthcare infrastructure is in India, for all the growth these last couple of decades. Indian infrastructure in general is poorly developed, as Amartya Sen pointed to in the wake of being awarded a Nobel Prize in economics, but there was little response to Sen from development specialists and express criticism from Indian economists. Now, we find India in any day recording about as many or more coronavirus cases as China has recorded in all.
September 6, 2020
Coronavirus
India
Cases ( 4,202,562)
Deaths ( 71,687)
China
Cases ( 85,122)
Deaths ( 4,634)
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
India ( 52)
China ( 3)
Without getting bogged down in the whole Pelosi hair event, what stands out to me is that a very smart woman, with access to the latest information and best possible treatments and who, at 80 years old, is clearly in a high risk group, is not worried about coronavirus. “I’m going out and getting a shampoo and blowout”, That’s far more interesting to me than if she thinks she was set up somehow.
Dumb move, She should have known better.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/05/world/asia/india-economy-coronavirus.html
September 5, 2020
Coronavirus Crisis Shatters India’s Big Dreams
The country’s ambitions to become a global power, lift its poor and update its military have been set back by a sharp economic plunge, soaring infections and a widening sense of malaise.
By Jeffrey Gettleman
[ India began the year as the third largest economy and so far has experienced a fierce recession that is going to take a considerable time to recover from. This means an important driver of the international economy has been lost already and will continue to be lost for a time, and this will make an international recovery that much slower. ]
On a holiday weekend in the US, the virus continues its grinding hold on Americans’ lives.
NY Times – September 7
Before Memorial Day weekend in May, the United States recorded a seven-day average number of new cases of 22,580, according to a New York Times database, and the average for new deaths announced was 1,216.
At the beginning of Labor Day weekend on Friday, the seven-day average number of new cases was 41,233, and the average number of new deaths reported was 851. …
Most parents and children are in the early stages of another round of online learning. Many colleges and universities have welcomed students back. The country is mostly open. And New York, once the hottest of hot spots, announced that the positivity rate for the state had remained under 1 percent for the past month. Still, cases in the Midwest are spiking. And the reopening of college campuses has spurred outbreaks. More than 51,000 cases have been reported at more than 1,000 campuses. Some students have faced serious consequences for breaking the rules. Northeastern University in Massachusetts dismissed 11 students last week for violating safety precautions. New York University, Ohio State, West Virginia University and Purdue have all suspended students over violations of rules intended to curb the virus’s spread on campus.
And higher education institutions are dealing with more challenges. A student group at the University of Kansas, where there are nearly 500 cases, is planning a “strike” to push the university to move to remote learning, The Kansas City Star reported; this follows a similar “sickout” last week at the University of Iowa.
In Boston, Northeastern University dismisses 11 first-year students for partying.
via @BostonGlobe – September 4
Northeastern University has dismissed 11 first-year students after they were caught violating social distancing rules, the school announced Friday, the latest and most aggressive attempt to prevent the pandemic from disrupting plans to return to Boston’s campuses this fall.
The students were caught at the Westin Hotel, which is being used as a temporary dormitory this semester, on Wednesday night without masks and not social distancing, according to university spokeswoman Renata Nyul.
The dismissed students will not be allowed to take courses from home this semester but will be permitted to return in the spring, Nyul said. They were part of a special one-semester program for freshmen that was prepaid and cost $36,500. That money will not be refunded. …
In San Francisco, stylists say Nancy Pelosi’s hair salon visit not a one-off
– everybody’s doing it
SF Chronicle – September 6
Despite all of the shock and awe over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent trip to a San Francisco a salon to get her hair done, the truth is that such backdoor visits to salons, which are supposed to be closed to indoor service during the pandemic, are common and have been going in the city for months. …
New US Coronavirus Infections Slow as Labor Day Holiday Winds Down
WS Journal – September 7
New coronavirus cases in the U.S. fell to their lowest level since June 22 as the Labor Day holiday weekend began to wind down, while governors in some states continued to urge people to remain vigilant to avoid the jumps in transmission that have followed some previous holidays.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Twitter Sunday that the state’s hospitalization rates are down, but warned one weekend could change that. “Seriously—don’t go to a big party. Wear a mask. BE SMART. I know we’re tired of #COVID19 but literal lives are at stake,” he wrote.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp on Twitter urged Georgians to wear a mask, practice social distancing and wash their hands. Earlier, Mr. Kemp had warned about the consequences of social gatherings during past long weekends. “When you look at the charts, it’s abundantly clear that cases have spiked and hospitalizations have risen and deaths have increased after our holiday weekends,” he said Friday.
Many holiday weekend events, including Labor Day parades across the country, have been scrapped due to the pandemic and concerns about crowding.
Septemberfest, a Labor Day weekend celebration in Omaha, Neb., that culminates with a Monday parade typically attended by 35,000, was canceled for the first time in its 43-year history, said event founder and chairman Terry Moore.
The U.S. reported more than 31,000 cases for Sunday, down from 44,000 on Saturday, as the death toll approached 189,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. …