Several days ago the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel have agreed to have diplomatic relations, with this being the third Arab nation to officially recognize Israel, following Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. President Trump and his supporters are claiming that this is a great breakthrough to world peace, with Jared Kushner supposedly the key player on the American side. But most observers think that this is an exaggeration, to put it mildly. The standard summary is that this deal is a win-win-win-lose: a win for the US, UAE, and Israel, but a lose for the Palestinians.
Let me give the Trump people, including even the usually incompetent Jared Kushner, some credit. They have managed to achieve only a handful of international agreements. And given the long and difficult relationship between Israel and the Arab nations, it must be recognized that making such an agreement is difficult, so they deserve some congratulations, even if this is far less than what they claimed they were going to achieve, which was supposed to be a much broader agreement. But given the administration’s strong tilt to Israel from the beginning, supporting moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing the annexation of the Golan Heights, and supporting a plan that would countenance annexation of territories in the West Bank, it is unsurprising that the Palestinians simply withdrew from any negotiations being pushed by the Trump administration. There simply was not going to be that more general agreement.
Of course we must admit that there is a sort of gain for the Palestinians: the UAE leadership demanded a cessation of the Israeli plans to annex West Bank territories, thus retaining a smidgeon of a chance for the nearly dead two state solution that supposedly came out of the Oslo Accord. Of course, Netanyahu says this is only temporary, and he retains the plan to do annexation. But that plan is now on hold. But this is a matter of the good thing being a matter of Israel not doing a bad thing that Trump and Kushner were supporting them in doing. This is not something to get too into praising about.
There is also the matter that there was a lot less input from Trump and Kushner to this outcome than they would have us believe. This deal has been in the works for a long time. Indeed, while he did not make a big deal about it and was ridiculed by the Trumpisti when he mentioned it, Biden and Obama did play a role in the early stages of this. The initial openings between the UAE and Israel date as far back as 2013 with more definite moves happening in 2015, with the top people in the Obama admin aware of this and encouraging it. From 2015 on there were Israeli businesses operating in the UAE, and the two have shared intel since from around then, if not earlier, mostly about Iran, whom they share an enmity towards. The key player on the UAE side has been its top leader, Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) of Abu Dhabi. He is viewed by many as more important in Middle East matters than his junior sometime ally, MbS in Saudi Arabia. While these two generally work together mostly, they have backed different groups in Yemen, and Saudi Arabia is apparently not likely to follow UAE on making an open deal with Israel, although rumors have Bahrain and Oman possibly doing so.
Will this deal lead to peace between Israel and the Palestinians or peace between Iran and its regional enemies or even a major relaxation between Israel and the broader Arab world? Probably not, possibly even aggravating some of these. But it may reflect public acknowledgement of the reality on the ground.
Barkley Rosser
There is also the matter that there was a lot less input from Trump and Kushner to this outcome than they would have us believe.
I haven’t really been following this story, but from what I’m seeing now, it was mostly a UAE initiative from the beginning. Americans have a long history of seeing themselves as pivotal players in Middle Eastern events which in fact were almost entirely the work of local powers. The UAE-Israel deal would probably have happened with or without any US involvement at all.
As to the Palestinian issue, there’s no possibility of a “two-state solution” and never was. Some parties to the various negotiation charades have chosen to pretend it’s a viable option for their own diplomatic reasons, but they all know that’s not reality.
They were already on this deal. It’s irrelevant. They are both part of the conspiracy, along with russia,ksa and egypt.
Follow the money
“The UAE was bribed with F-35s and other sophisticated weapons to recognize Israel. Trump and Esper made Lockheed Martin happy, ensuring campaign dollars for Trump’s reelection, and Esper did well by his old company and colleagues. Netanyahu winked at this erosion of Israeli military dominance, hiding this dimension of the deal from his own minister of defense and security apparatus, so that he could claim the recognition as a breakthrough for his personal diplomacy and charisma. Netanyahu is under indictment and he may betray Gantz by going to new elections and campaigning on having gotten further recognition from the Arabs.”
https://www.juancole.com/2020/08/stealth-israel-netanyahu.html
The outcome here is completely predictable. The Palestinians will not agree to any negotiations that do not include the US. They recognize a patsy with deep pockets when they see one.
US State Department negotiators are like children. Those children have negotiated deeply flawed agreements and treaties. The US-China trade agreements and the US-North Korea nuclear weapons agreements are just two examples. Their only imperative has been to GET A DEAL! NO has not been in their vocabulary.
They will make a deal one way or another, even if they have to sell working class Americans into serfdom or negotiate a deal which is so toothless that almost immediately North Korea continues to build more bombs and/or intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Palestinian power came from highjacking passenger aircraft and developing guilt in the minds of wealthy middle eastern potentates. The improvements in security around airports ended the first and the development of alternate energy sources curbed the guilt of the second. (Less income, less guilt) The Palestinians only remaining power is to toss a few rockets into Israel from time to time. And the Israelis seem to be prepared to trade death for death for as long as the Palestinians desire.
At best, any negotiations with the Palestinians will result in some temporary hopeful smiles. The Palestinians will pretend to agree to an eventual two state solution, and the Israelis will pretend to agree not to annex territories on the West Bank. The pretending will end when Hamas launches one too many rockets from Gaza into Israel.
Agreements for real change require both parties to negotiate in good faith and compromise on deeply felt disagreements. The Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland have accomplished real change.
Fifty years from now, the only significant change between the Palestinians and Israelis will be the height and appearance of the walls separating them.
Yes I think Joel has the key. The F-35s and the kickbacks to the Trump campaign. There is always a monetary angle for the Kush.