Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: infections and hospitalizations have increased; it may be too late for Arizona
Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: infections and hospitalizations have increased; it may be too late for Arizona
Let’s start with the basics: total US coronavirus infections are 2,191,371. Total US deaths from coronavirus are 118,436. Those are official numbers; the real numbers are obviously higher.
The number of daily new infections averaged over a week has started to rise decisively. After a low of 20,357 on June 9, as of the 18th it has risen to 23,923:
Not all States keep track of hospitalizations, so most dashboards don’t cover them. Conor Kelly does, and his measure shows that hospitalizations have also increased over the past three days as well:
Deaths, however, have continued to decrease, down to 679 over the past 7 days vs. the peak of 2,210 on April 18:
One Stanford statistician claims that COVID-19 deaths are following a “Gompertz function,” I.e., they have all but completed burning through the available victims, and that deaths will drop to zero within 60 days:
It is certainly interesting that, while new infections declined only 1/3 from peak, deaths have declined 2/3 from peak. But I suspect that the curve-fitting is skewed by the period that hospitals were overwhelmed by the NYC outbreak. When we remove the NYC metro from the data, deaths are not declining towards zero at all:
Turning to the situation in the recklessly reopened States, Arizona’s rate of new infections has gone exponential:
At this rate, within about 10 days Arizona will be as bad on a per capita basis as NY was at its peak. And remember, those who will present with symptoms in the next 5-7 days have already been infected. Aside from Utah, all of the other top 10 States are from the Confederacy, and their rates of infection have been growing. Texas has risen to #11.
As to deaths, which lag, on a per capita basis 7 of the top 10 States are from the Northeast megalopolis. Illlinois is also included. But all 8 of these are declining. Both Georgia and Arizona have now joined, at #9 and 10, respectively, and their numbers are generally slowly growing:
It remains to be seen how brutally reality will have to hammer these States before they see the light, if ever. The governors of both Arizona and Texas have reluctantly allowed municipalities to mandate mask-wearing if they choose, and many of Arizona’s biggest municipalities have already done so.
https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-22/Germany-s-COVID-19-R-rate-rockets-from-1-06-to-2-88-in-two-days–RvWCknmH7y/index.html
June 22, 2020
Germany’s COVID-19 R-rate rockets from 1.06 to 2.88 in two days
By Alec Fenn
Germany’s COVID-19 reproduction (R) rate has increased from 1.06 on Friday to 2.88, according to figures published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for public health on Sunday.
The figures, based on a four-day average, mean that every infected person will, on average, pass the virus on to nearly three other people.
An R-rate of below one is required to stop the virus from spreading widely and rapidly across individual countries – and to continue easing lockdown measures.
Even when recalibrating the numbers to negate short-term effects, RKI estimated the seven-day rolling average of Germany’s reproduction rate had mushroomed to 2.03 from 1.17 on Friday.
Germany’s sharp rise in R-rate comes as authorities continue to struggle to impose quarantine rules on people who have tested positive for COVID-19 or come into contact with an infected person.
Officials in Germany’s Goettingen and North Rhine-Westphalia regions have called on police to enforce measures following a rise in infections and the number of people breaking isolation rules.
Health authorities needed police reinforcement to maintain lockdown conditions on Saturday after a riot broke out at a Goettingen tower block where around 700 people had been placed into quarantine.
“Around 200 people tried to get out, but 500 people complied with quarantine rules,” Goettingen police chief Uwe Luehrig said at a press conference on Sunday.
In the ensuing fracas, eight police officers were injured after residents started to attack law enforcement officials with bottles, fireworks and metal bars, Luehrig said.
Officials in North Rhine-Westphalia forced 6,500 employees and their families to go into quarantine earlier this week after more than 1,000 staff at German meat processing firm Toennies tested positive for coronavirus.
Armin Laschet, the premier of the state of North Rhine Westphalia called in consular officials from Poland, Bulgaria and Romania to mobilise translators to persuade workers at a local meat processing plant to observe a new lockdown.
“There are 1,300 properties where staff and their families live, and where we need to observe the quarantine rules,” Laschet said at a press conference on Sunday, explaining that local police and public order officials were helping out.
Germany has previously been hailed as one of the world’s success stories in their vigilant handling of the pandemic, having reported 189,822 laboratory-confirmed infections and 8,882 deaths.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-18-new-COVID-19-cases-no-new-deaths-Rwv9fkoVRC/index.html
June 22, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 18 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
Chinese health authorities on Monday said that 18 new COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Sunday, of which 11 were local transmissions and seven were imported cases. No new deaths were reported.
Among the cases of local transmission, Beijing registered 9 and Hebei Province registered 2, the National Health Commission said in its daily report.
The commission also identified 7 new asymptomatic patients.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 83,396 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 114 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-18-new-COVID-19-cases-no-new-deaths-Rwv9fkoVRC/img/713fcb55af7b4a95953b7c726bd94110/713fcb55af7b4a95953b7c726bd94110.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-18-new-COVID-19-cases-no-new-deaths-Rwv9fkoVRC/img/e1098503d7ec4ad99a829839a9b71d07/e1098503d7ec4ad99a829839a9b71d07.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptotic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-18-new-COVID-19-cases-no-new-deaths-Rwv9fkoVRC/img/b5f05151b3594b8cb243090b79ebb2d7/b5f05151b3594b8cb243090b79ebb2d7.jpeg
June 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,366,136)
Deaths ( 122,321)
UK
Cases ( 305,289)
Deaths ( 42,647)
Germany
Cases ( 191,718)
Deaths ( 8,964)
Canada
Cases ( 101,498)
Deaths ( 8,433)
China discovered a locally transmitted coronavirus case in Beijing on June 10. Before that there had been no local transmissions in Beijing for about 2 months. The number of cases climbed to 39 on June 14, but with mass testing, contact tracing, isolation and quarantine, the number of new cases had fallen to 11 on June 22 and there is reason to think the outbreak has been controlled.
Scott Gottlieb, MD @ScottGottliebMD
The latest update today from http://rt.live shows 31 states tipping into an R > 1 which reflects that their epidemics are expanding. Morgan Stanley’s latest model update pegs the national R equal to 1.1 and U.S. epidemic doubling time of about 52 days, from 60 last week.
1:25 PM · Jun 22, 2020
June 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,378,161)
Deaths ( 122,529)
UK
Cases ( 305,289)
Deaths ( 42,647)
Germany
Cases ( 191,948)
Deaths ( 8,967)
Canada
Cases ( 101,573)
Deaths ( 8,434)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/world/coronavirus-updates.html
June 22, 2020
Trump will sign an order suspending work visas, barring entry to foreigners and angering businesses.
President Trump will sign an executive order temporarily suspending work visas and barring hundreds of thousands of foreigners from coming to work in the United States, part of a broad effort by the administration to dramatically limit entry into the country during the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic, senior administration officials said Monday.
The restrictions would block entry into the United States under the H-1B visa program for high-skilled workers, and would also affect several other categories of visas.
The order, which has been expected for several weeks, is fiercely opposed by a broad swath of businesses — including high tech companies in Silicon Valley, manufacturers, and others — who say it will block their ability to recruit critically needed workers from overseas countries for jobs that Americans are not willing or capable of performing.
Stephen Miller, the architect of the president’s assault on immigration, has pushed for years to limit or eliminate the worker visas, arguing that they harm employment prospects for Americans. In recent months, he has argued that the economic distress caused by the virus has made it even more important to turn off the spigot of foreign entry into the United States.
In April, the president signed an executive order that suspended for 60 days the issuance of green cards to foreigners looking to live in the United States. But at the time, Mr. Miller and the president bowed to pressure from the business community to avoid imposing limits on the worker visas.
Monday’s order extends the green-card prohibition in addition to suspending the issuance of many of the worker visas. In addition, the administration officials said that the president will order new regulations to permanently change worker visas in the future so that foreign job offers go to more highly paid, highly-skilled workers that will compete less with Americans.
The order includes exceptions for some categories of workers, including health care professionals needed to combat or do research about the virus.
anne:
Any claim to forestalling the spread of Covid in the US is too late, the same as his delaying the declaration of an emergency in the US because of Covid, the same as building a stock pile of needed PPE for healthcare works and facemasks for citizens, etc. It is a joke and a convenient answer to the loss of jobs. Blame the furriners for the loss of jobs and minorities foor the spread of Covid. I wish he would get a dose of Covid.