That would be Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin, whose French name means “prairie dog,” and which is located where the Wisconsin River empties into the Mississippi River, third oldest town in the state founded by Europeans (the French) after Green Baay (originallly Fort Nicolet) and Portage, also located at crucial spots long used by the Native Indians for river transport. It is also the county seat for Crawford County, with Grant County just across the Wisconsin River.
Many argue that Wisconsin is the ultimate swing state, based on that if all the states go as they did in 2016, Trump would stilll win if he loses PA and MI, but wins in WI. It might be that Bernie in particular could swing AZ because of his strong support among non-Foridian Latinos, but even with that, Wisconsin is clearly about as crucial and swingy as any state in the Union. How it goes is likely to align with the ultimate outcome in the electoral collage, at least as things stand now.
So why is Prairie du Chien so crucial? Well, aside from several industrial cities, notably Erie, PA and Yongstown, OH, the parts of the nation that did the largest amount of changing their votes between 2012 and 2016, with then at least partly moving back towars Dems happen to be southwestern Wisconsin and noetheastern Iowa across the Miisissippi from SW WI. While much of WI is now pretty rigidly partidsanly fixed, not so true in the past, this area is up for grabs and swinging back and forth at lot. What matters in the rest of the state has more to do with base turnout issues, such as African Americans in Milwaukee and some other stories turning out a lot more in 2012 than in 2016. But as of now, it looks like what goes on in SW WI looks to indicate how the state will go and thus how the national outome will go.
This is an area I think that continues to reflect a continuation of the “good government” tradition od the state examplified by the late senator, squeaky-clean William Proxmire (D-WI). It seems to the part of the state that suddenly turned against Clinton in 2016 after James Comey came out with his report that she was again under FBI investigaation 11 days before the 2016 election. Maybe the lower black turnout would have done her in, but it looks to me that the sudden change in SW WI really sealed the deal.
I am looking at four counties in the Southwest in particular, moving from SE to NW: Lafayette, Grant (in the actual SW corner of the state), Crawford, and larger La Crosse. All four went for Obama more strongly than the state as a whole in 2012 but more strongly for Trump in 2016 than the state average. Then three of the four went for Dem governor winner, Tony Evers, in 2018, who won by hair over Scott Walker, 49.5% to 49.4%. Of these four, Lafayette went for Walker, while LaCrosse went way stgonly for Evers. The two sticking more closely to the state outcomes, but showing large swinging weere the other tow Crawford and Grant, with Prairie du Chien on their border, hence its significance.
I show the state totals for Dems for the three elections and the outcones for those two counties below.
Statewide
2012 Dems 52.83%
2016 Dems 46,45%
2018 Dems 49.5%
Crawford County
2012 Dems 59.22%
2016 Dems 44,24%
2018 Dems 51.83%
Grant
2012 Dems 56.04%
2016 Dems 41.25%
2018 Dems 50.19%
Heck, Grant in ths SW conrner may track it slightly closer than Crawford, but county seat Lancaster not as cool sounding as Prairie du Chien, and that small city is just across the river from Grant. So more generally, as those two counties go, so probably will the state and the nation.
Barkley Rosser
Word order indicates that this should be translated prarie of the Dog, not dog of the prarie.
Wikipedia indicates that it was named after a local tribal leader encountered by the French.
Je suis deslole, monsiuer, mais vous etes sans sensibilite.
You are correct that a word-for-word translation of the name is as you say. But this is completely ridiculous. It was named for a well-known animal of the prairie whose name in English is as I gave it: prairie dog. I certainly hope that you are not attempting to teach anybody French.
Needless to say, there I went getting all pompous about the French language and I spelled “Monsieur” as “Monsiuer..” Quel honte! C’est dommage! Quel catastrophe!
Hey Barkley;
German, I would have caught for you. With French, you are on your own . . .
Turnout is the answer to everything. Counties that switched did not mean voters changed sides, it meant that different voters turned out.
I have met a lot of people in my life, but I have never met anyone weird enough to vote for a black man and then vote for a racist next election. Those people don’t exist beyond 4 or 5 a county.
You excite your base and make sure you do not let this primary election go to the convention for a dragged out fight. That is the only way trump wins.
And this concern about the house and the senate. Dem voters are going to vote Dem if they vote. Stop worrying about anything other than uniting the party and beating trump.
I am not necessarily endorsing EMichael view but I could not help but notice that you did not include Vernon County where yours truly has a cottage on 35 acres of pristine drift less area oak covered acres. Trump carried the county in 2016 with less than a thousand votes but Evers beat Walker in 2018 by less than a thousand. I think more votes were cast in 2018 than in 2016. I know the eastern part of the county well and it is an amalgamation of Amish—who I understand do not vote, at least in large numbers—good old boys and the women who put up with them, aging hippies who fled Madison in 70’s and 80’s and are now grandparents and a whole lot of pretty ordinary people who enjoy the rural environment and are willing to scramble to make a living in it. More than anything in 2016 Trump turned out his base and Hillary did not.
Terry,
Vernon on the edge of this zone. If you look at your own numbers, not as big switches as going on further southwest.
EM,
Of course turnout crucial, and I do not know how who is doing what in Grant County. But I have spent a lot of time in WI over a long time, and I used to know people who voted for both Joe McCarthy and George McGovern, opposing those eastern elites after all. I suspect SW WI ia a zone that still has those types. In any case, whether it is the same people chaniging their minds or different people turning out, that area in fact has the biggest percent changes in voting in the entire country aside from those few industrial cities, and in the ultimate swing statee.
J. Goodwin,o
I must apologize for my snotty response to your remark. You are right, and I was wrong.
I lived in Wisconsin and always heard that the town was named for prairie dogs, still widely believed there. But in fact it was named for an Indian chief whose name translated to “Dog,” and he lived on the plain. So it was the plain of him. Indeed “chien de prairie” is the proper French name for prairie dog. So, I apologize.