A Striking Fact Reported in the August 28 2019 Quinnipiac Poll

Voters who are paying a lot of attention to the race are much more to support Elisabeth Warren than voters who are paying little or no attention. It is also true that voters who are paying a lot of attention are more likely to support Joe Biden than Elisabeth Warren. Finally, Voters who are paying a lot of attention are somewhat less likely to support Bernie Sanders than are voters who are paying little or none.

If you don’t see an image cut and pasted from Quinnipiac click on the “Read More >” link at the bottom right corner of the post to see the image of the polling results.

The whole pdf report of the results is here

6% of people who are paying little or no attention support Warren and 25% of people who are paying a lot of attention support Warren. In contrast the numbers are almost identical for Biden who has 31% among those paying little or no attention and 32% support among those paying a lot of attention. Finally Sanders has 18 % support among those paying little or no attention and 11% support among those paying a lot of attention.

I think this is interesting. For one thing, people pay increasing attention as time passes. This helps explain the striking increase in overall support for Warren. I would tend to suspect that support for Warren will continue to increase.

But it might just show that nerds like nerds, that people who claim they have paid a lot of attention like the candidate who always has a plan for that. If this explains the pattern, there is less reason to forecast continued increase of support for Warren. People pay more attention to elections as the voting day approaches, but non nerds do not become nerds.

Anyway, I thought the polling data is interesting.

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