Expect a core CPI of 2% this year.

My discovery that half the annual increase in the not seasonally adjusted core CPI occcurs in the first quarter and that simply doubling the first quarter increase gives you an amazingly accurate estimate of the December to December reading work again in 2018.

In 2019 it is saying the annual increase in the core CPI will be about 2% — the same as the widely accepted consensus.

Figure 1

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