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Weekly Indicators

Dan Crawford | August 5, 2018 12:27 pm

(Dan here….another one from NDd)

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The old vaudeville sketch comes to mind: “Niagara Falls. Slowly I turn. Step by step ….”

Not only are these weekly posts intellectually edifying, but since clicking over and reading it puts a penny in my pocket, it is the epitome of polite etiquette.

1 Comment

likbez says:

August 7, 2018 at 1:17 am

Oil prices and usage (from the E.I.A.)
•Oil down -0.32 to $68.68 w/w, up +41.8% YoY
•Gas prices up +$.02 to $2.85 w/w, up $0.49 YoY
•Usage 4-week average down -0.9% YoY
The price of gas bottomed over two years ago at $1.69. Generally prices went sideways with a slight increasing trend in 2017. Usage turned negative in the first half of 2017, but has almost always been positive since then (but not this week). The YoY change went back above 40% recently, so the rating has turned negative.

With the current level of Iran saber-rattling $90 per barrel of oil is not out of question for the forth quarter. For the US economics that might means sliding into recession.

It things turn negative at the end of the year, the existence of inflated stocks of tech companies with zero profit will create an opportunity for the dot-com style “mini-crash” in 2019.