Fraying at the edges? *relative* underemployment increases
Fraying at the edges? *relative* underemployment increases
Once more into a the market abyss
Record low claims are the patina of policy success …. These record claims represent a bubble that was born out of and is joined at the hip with the financial engineering bubble that has been metastasizing in the US economy for a generation.
Just one problem: this quote comes from November 2015, when initial jobless claims were averaging 270,000 per week.
See the problem?
In my opinion, If you are middle or working class, and you have some money in the market via a 401k or similar, and you can’t stand a 10% downturn, then you shouldn’t be in the market at all, but rather devote that money to a cash-type of portfolio that allows you to sleep at night and not worry about your future. One rule of thumb I set for myself way back 25 years ago when I first got interested in this stuff, is what I called “the Turtle Method,” as in turtle vs. hare. That rule of thumb was that, for every month’s expenses I had saved, I could invest 1% of my assets. So if I had 10 months of savings, I could invest 10% of my total assets. That way I could sleep at night.
Bottom line: there are a lot of major problems in this country right now. How the economy is doing isn’t one of them, and that is very unlikely to change in the next 3-6 months.
new deal
i have no way of knowing. mr bogle thinks no one can time the market but suggests you take risks while young with little to lose and time to recover. when you get old you likely have a lot to lose (in the market) and not enough time to recover. but my kids will need the money: i can’t afford to risk it. and they can’t afford the inflation that will bite them if i don’t.
and also “more marginally employable” is a bit of an insult, though i am sure you did not intend it. when i worked in the sawmill i worked next to a guy with a chemical engineering degree. probably only marginally employable because the universities had been churning them out for years and the market for chemical engineers had fallen.
NDD,
You said all indicators were UP … excluding the employment values the indicators you said were up are all down in fact.
The ISM Mg’ing report says all indicators are down in the latest report for Jan.2018 — it’s also an estimate. FRED reports mfg’ing excluding aircraft is also down Nov to Dec.
ISM:
“”The January PMI® registered 59.1 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 59.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 65.4 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 67.4 percent. The Production Index registered 64.5 percent, a 0.7 percentage point decrease compared to the seasonally adjusted December reading of 65.2”
https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1
HOUSING:
Permits – Dec 0.1% below Nov.
Starts: – Dec 8.2% below Nov
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
MORTGAGE Applications:
Up 0.7% week ending Feb 2,that was after being down the prior week by 2.6%. Net last two weeks is down 2%. Also applications to purchase a home were flat .. refi’s were up 0.9%.
“Mortgage applications in the United States rose 0.7 percent in the week ended February 2nd 2018, following a 2.6 percent drop in the previous period, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. Refinance applications went up 0.9 percent and applications to purchase a home were flat. ”
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mortgage-applications