Should Black Voters Favor Democrats?
One of the memes that was circulated in some quarters during the last election is that Black people are excessively loyal to the Democrats. In this post I will examine whether that is true using real median incomes.
The figure below shows the Black Median Income as a Percentage of the Total (i.e., all ethnicities) Median Income, with Democratic Presidential administrations shaded in gray:
Black median income was 48.5% of total median income in 1948, and increased to 78.9% of total median income in 2015. In any given year, however, the ratio of Black median income tended to increase by 0.9% when a Democrat was President, and by only 0.2% when a Republican was President. But… the big increase under Democrat is due largely to two periods: the JFK/LBJ administrations and the Clinton administration. In fact, the ratio barely budged in the Truman years (for which data is available) and the Carter administration, and actually declined under Obama so far.
But of course, the ratio of median income for Black people to the total median income can increase while still making everyone worse off if the entire pie is decreasing. So here’s what real median income (total, and for Black people only) looks like since 1948:
Once again, the performance is better under Democrats than under Republicans. But if we drill down, once more it appears the difference is due entirely to the JFK/LBJ and Clinton years. In fact, during the Truman, Carter and Obama presidencies, the total real median income increase was about $130 a year (beating the Republican average), but the increase in real median income for Black people was only $8 a year, which was less than the Republican average.
So we can conclude… Black people have gotten a bigger share of a growing pie under Democrats than under Republicans, but this is only true because of the extraordinary performance of the JFK/LBJ and Clinton administrations. On the other hand, hapless and ineffective Presidents like Carter and Obama have not, on average, posted positive income outcomes for the Black community.
The 2016 Race
How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an Opening for Trump
New demographic estimates for the election, and a look at how the key alliance of Northern white voters and black voters shrank for Hillary Clinton.
By NATE COHN
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/upshot/how-the-obama-coalition-crumbled-leaving-an-opening-for-trump.html
Wonderful shakeout by Cohn: Trump won by trading places with Obama. O appealed to less educated whites as their protector against the Wall Street candidate (47% time) Romney. (Crackpot) Trump appealed to them with same promise versus Wall Street candidate (true enough) Hill.
Magic revelation: Dems just have to get busy rebuilding labor union density at the state by progressive state level (or not so progressive; but be seen trying hard). Repubs will have no where to hide: once and for all political checkmate.
Been working on cobbling together multiple branches and angles on what and how. See developing thoughts here:
http://ontodayspage.blogspot.com/2016/12/wet-backs-and-narrow-backs-irish.html
Merry Christmas progressives!
Great.
First thing on Christmas morning is a bunch of coal dropped on the blog.
I am not even going to bother with most of this pile of coalification products, but when I see the lead in a story as nonsensical as this:
“One of the memes that was circulated in some quarters during the last election is that Black people are excessively loyal to the Democrats. In this post I will examine whether that is true using real median incomes”
it needs to be said that somewhere there is an idea here but it is obviously not the idea professed cause the finding of this truth based on the method is obviously a huge wast of time and space.
DD,
GW has something that neither Obama nor Hilary have. By Q1 of 2008, and perhaps by Q4 of 2007, he was able to recognize that whatever affinity he had managed to accrue with the public had, by then, evaporated. Yes, most people still found him personally likeable, and there were a few die hards who still wanted his policies implemented. (Hey, there is always another country to be invaded, and another financial regulation that can be dismantled.) But GW understood that after Afghanistan, Iraq, stagnant wages, banksters on the rampage, a housing crisis, a surplus transformed into a deficit, and the start of the Great Recession, his outcomes, and perhaps even the policies that produced them had become toxic to the electorate. He understood that while he still had a die hard base of support (there are always those who see more countries to invade, and more financial regulations to tear up), if most voters connected him with the Republican Party, the Republican Party would be finished for a generation.
So he kept a low profile in the 2008 election and has kept a low profile since. And the Republican Party lucked out, because the Democrat who followed him in office was equally inept. What the public wanted to see – peace, someone held accountable for the housing meltdown, rising incomes, etc., well, Obama delivered on none of it. (Even GW’s one clear success that produced exactly the outcomes everyone wanted and expected, the No-Call registry, has been allowed to go to pot in the last eight years.)
And Obama hasn’t the sense to see that nobody wants more of the same outcomes. And apparently neither did Hilary, who campaigned on more of the same.
Mike,
I’ve been looking at some of FDR’s fireside chats. Some of it is a bit tough going even for me and he’s talking to a much less sophisticated audience than today’s. But he’s trying to connect with average persons like they are the only persons to connect with. Ditto for Truman who advised Adlai Stevenson that he had to get in touch with the folks in the street.
Why doesn’t everyone know that the min wage was $11 when per cap income was half today’s? Why doesn’t everyone know by now that 6% union density in the private econ is like 20/10 BP?
Worked on that sort/Dem would be pres — if you believe Coen’s analysis.
Why would you assume that economics is the only issue of importance to African Americans? How about the flat out racism of Republicans? How about vote suppression by Republicans? How about educational segregation by Republicans? How about union busting by Republicans? How about climate change denial by Republicans? How about abortion laws by Republicans? How about Supreme Court extremists by Republicans?
These are all good reasons for African Americans as well as others to vote consistently for Democrats. Economics is only one issue of interest to African Americans as Bernie Sanders found to his detriment.
BB,
Especially economics that is measured without any consideration for circumstances beyond the control of a President of party(on both sides) with great weight paid to insignificant amounts.
Somehow I am thinking that, even using the JFK/LBJ + Clinton increases as an example, that there aren’t a lot of people excited by an increase in the median income of $67 a month.
But then again, that has nothing to do with the purpose of this post. We’ll know for sure in the next installment of the series (or the next 4 or 5).
You are certainly entitled to your opinions Cactus, but for the record I do not consider Obama either “hapless” or equally “inept” to Dumya. Indeed in the face of GOP obstruction he did a remarkable job of restoring economic vitality to the economy, oversaw the country becoming energy independent again, presided over a very low inflationary period and a near tripling of the stock averages, the provision of health insurance to 20 million of our most needy citizens, the enormous increase in wealth of the 1%, the gradual reduction in the federal deficit, the brining home of most of our troops deployed in active combat zones, the waging of unrelenting drone attacks on terrorist leaders, and the general increase in tolerance and sense of community among most of the country’s citizens. I understand that a minority resulting in an electoral college victory want to undo everything Obama accomplished but 50+% approve of Obama now, rather than the 30+% of the dead enders who approved of Dumbya when he left office and I think more than approve of our president elect. With a 3.5% growth rate in the revised 3rd quarter statistics you really have no support for your position concerning Obama even if some racist poorly educated white guys hate him and some well educated white guys who hate him only because he challenged their white privilege. There is a reason it is the black folks who are buying up guns now
Dennis,
Worrying about jobs and wages seems to be passe for Democrats these days. It is unfortunate.
BillB,
I hate to say it, but leaving aside outright genocide, people make a surprising amount of decisions based on economics. During the Apartheid era, South Africa the government erected an electrified fence to discourage illegal immigration. It was kept on “lethal mode” most of the time, resulting in about 100 deaths a year until it was dialed down to “alarm mode” in 1990. Now you wouldn’t think that many Black Africans would want to visit much less illegally live in Apartheid era South Africa, but given that the economic opportunities for those who did so exceeded their other economic opportunities, many tried.
Many of the illegal migrants to South Africa came from Mozambique, fleeing the Mozamican civil war. But they could fled to other countries neighboring Mozambique more easily (i.e., countries without an electric border fence set on lethal and far less effective police services). Mozambique shares land borders with Swaziland (OK, that’s an odd case), South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and Tanzania.
A quick google search tells me that 42K Mozambicans were deported from South Africa in 1990, and the figures rose in later years. Economics is a powerful motivator.
EMichael,
I’m not betting on you.
Terry,
I hesitate to compare the Great Recession to the Great Depression, but there were multiple years during FDR’s first eight years in office, there were several single years with double digit increases in real GDP. That’s what restoring vitality to the economy looks like following an economic meltdown. Under Obama we have gotten back to the same lackluster growth we had before 2007. Assuming he is to be credited for our current economic situation, it isn’t all that much to crow about.
At best we can assume Mike Kimel has simply gotten more than his fair share of the eggnog. That would explain why when asked about the U.S. elections he goes off on a crazy tirade about electric fences in South Africa.
At worst, we can assume it isn’t the eggnog talking and he is trying to make a sober racist point that blacks really didn’t have it so bad in South Africa during apartheid and that it was a worker’s paradise.
BillB,
Misconstruing comments is an odd hobby for adults, but it seems EMichael is a good proselytizer. I congratulate you on your prowess at misunderstanding. Nevertheless, I will spell it out:
1. Apartheid was a horrible system, and South Africa under Apartheid was much, much worse for Black people than the US today by any standard.
2. Despite the awful nature of Apartheid, there were many Black Africans who were willing to take large risks to get into South Africa illegally despite many options which were significantly easier. I mentioned Mozambique as an example. Many Mozambicans tried to get into Apartheid South Africa rather than Zimbabwe or Tanzania, even though it was easier to get into Zimbabwe and Tanzania and neither had Apartheid.
3. I assumed that the only reason not-insignificant numbers of Mozambicans would conceivably risk trying to get into Apartheid South Africa rather than Zimbabwe or Tanzania is economic. If you’ve got a better reason, spit it out. If not, then hell yes, economic reasons are pretty damn powerful.
Am I missing something here in Terry’s comment? I thought the US was a huge net importer of energy. The numbers from the EIA website show net energy imports around 9 quadrillion BTu and net petroleum imports of 4.7 million barrels per day in 2015. This does not look like energy independence to me.
“In 2015, the United States produced about 14.8 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum, and it consumed about 19.5 MMb/d of petroleum. Imports help to supply the demand for petroleum.”
I may be making an arithmetic error but net petroleum imports are roughly equal in cost to the US trade deficit so energy independence through renewables and greater efficiency would seem to be a good idea.
Looking at recent history (this century), I notice that things looked up considerably for Black median income when Republicans were in charge of Congress. Then, when Democrats regained control in 2007, it started tanking again. Republicans regained both houses of Congress in 2013, and the gap started closing again.
Warren,
You need to rethink your thoughts regarding 2007. You seem to have missed something.
EMichael – “Especially economics that is measured without any consideration for circumstances beyond the control of a President….”
Of course here are circumstances beyond the control of what president is in power. However if they are not dependent on party, then they either are random and have no overall influence on any president or they turn out to be more beneficial to democrats anyway.
Jerry,
Yeah, the Obama administration sure received a benefit from the Great recession caused by the actions(and inactions) of the Bush admin and the Rep dominated Congress.
From the 1st chart then a rough regression on rate of closure to bring median income of Blacks to par with the overall median income will require another 34 more years… assuming of course the Dems have the same proportion of influence on increases in Black median incomes as they ‘ve had over the past 68 years.
Nice huh? Over a hundred years after the Civil war to the Civil Rights Act and it looks like it will take at least 100 years from post WWII to bring Black median incomes in line with overall median income.
Racism prevails in a racist nation.
Of course if you’d done the same rough regression from 1948 in 1972 you’d have predicted that par median income of Blacks would have been achieved by 1988. But that didn’t materialize because we had a but … but unfortunately we had a long run of Repubs in the White House house from ~’68 to ’92… during which median income of Blacks stalled out completely … 24 years worth of virtually no gain and during which period there was only one Dem pres of one term.
If empirics of median income of blacks rising under democratic administrations is any indicator or is in any way causal then then Blacks indeed have a strong economic incentive to elect Dems. Is there there’s some other indicator that Blacks should be using in their political choices to improve their median income?
And just btw, if you want to measure the relative difference you need to remove Black income from the non-black incomes and then make the comparison of closure rates to the rest of the nations’ median incomes.
Lindsay Berge,
After years of decline, oil production is up, at least since 2008. See here. But even with oil, we still import a lot.
Warren,
Black median income peaked in 2006 at $25,205 (all figures in this comment in 2015 dollars). But it had previously peaked at $25,110 in the year 2000. That’s a gain of $95 in 6 years. Peanuts. If you are going to blame the Dem Congress for the poor performance post 2006, who gets the blame for the poor performance from 2000 to 2005. And of course, the housing market had already peaked, and had started to decline by 2007… that was a big driver of incomes for the next few years.
Considering the high population density of Blacks in the US are in the South and Eastern Seaboard, then it is probably (my opinion) more relevant to make comparisons of Black median (and average) incomes in those states with the non-black population in those states.
Here’s the map that shows population densities by county in the US for Blacks.to give you some perspective.
http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html
“You need to rethink your thoughts regarding 2007. You seem to have missed something.”
Perhaps the fact that the Minimum Wage was increased on July 24th and Black employment fell the very next month and kept going down from there?
make comparisons of Black median (and average) incomes in those states with the non-black population in those states.
I admit it would make the analysis more apples to apples.
Warren,
The Great Recession.
It was in all the papers.
We know when it started, too.
Warren,
The horse was out of the barn on the Great Recession well before the Dems took Congress in 2007.
Everyone knows that. Well, everyone with a working brain.
Really? When did it start, then?
Perhaps you might want to consider this: “In April 2008, the BEA revised Q4 2007 GDP to -.2%, declaring the start of the current recession.” https://www.thebalance.com/2007-gdp-growth-updates-by-quarter-3306005
Waste of time talking to some people.
Explain to me what the Dem Congress that took over in January of 2007 did that could, in any way shape or form, start the recession three quarters down the road?
The Great Recession was baked in by mid 2006. Children knew it.
wow, after all Clinton did as president, that primarily screwed blacks/and other poor workers, like signing NAFTA in particular, Welfare reform, gutting bank regulations, i.e. doing the Republican dream of destroying the American Dream, the fact his name wasn’t mention as one of the major destroyers of black upward mobility, is quite stark. and also Hillary’s comment about black males. lol
deference to the D’s royal family is quite obvious.
the D’s and the R’s have destroyed the Black family. couldn’t destroy the American economy without Bill. the Republican need to admit and thank Bill for all his help.
“Explain to me what the Dem Congress that took over in January of 2007 did that could, in any way shape or form, start the recession three quarters down the road?”
I already did, in my comment of December 26, 2016 5:48 pm.
Warren,
You need mental help.
Where is this data from? The U.S. Bureau of the Census has the median Black income for 2014 as $35,398 and the article’s table shows it as less than $25k. Need some background into this big discrepancy.
Sebastion,
Mike is at the work. He seems to have left his sources off the post for which he probably feels mortified.
I can tell you that the data for this post comes from Census historical table P-04. Data is for individuals.