In the video below, Edward Harrison of Boom/Bust says some important things. Watch after 25:30 minute point.
- the unemployment rate is not a leading indicator for a recession. Unemployment can start to tick up as a recession is starting.
- watch non-farm payrolls.
- the Biz cycle is coming to its end.
So many well known economists got the business cycle wrong. They stated all along that the Fed should keep rates low until the recovery got going. They still see a large part of the cycle ahead. They see slack but they did not see an effective limit on the slack.
The Fed missed a whole interest cycle. It is important to follow an interest cycle with proper rates that discipline production. If rates stay too low for too long, as we have seen, then zombies more and more infect productivity, prices and production.
But I totally agree with him. My models have been tracking the business cycle correctly for years. The ultimate end of the business is drawing upon us… I give it by middle of next year for sure, and as I have been saying all year, a 70% chance by the end of 2016.