Are we close to a recession? (update)

Last week the 2nd quarter numbers for labor share of national income came out. Labor share ticked up a bit from the previous quarter, but pretty much exactly the same.

There is a graph I use to detect if a recession is imminent. The graph gets updated as the labor share number is revised. Here is the graph produced from FRED.

recession

link to graph.

When the blue line goes below the yellow line, a recession was imminent 7 out of 8 times since 1967. As you can see, a recession was not imminent as of the 2nd quarter 2013.

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