Employment Situation
The August employment report shows the economy continuing with its very sluggish pace. Although the unemployment rate fell it was due more to a contracting labor force rather than expanding employment. The household survey showed a drop of some 119,000 while the payroll or headline data increased only 96,000 — private rose 103,000 while government employment fell 7,000.
Moreover, the workweek was unchanged so the index of aggregate hours worked only rose 0.1%.
Average hourly earnings was unchanged and the year over year change remained at last months record
low. Average weekly earnings for nonsupervisory workers only rose 1.6% over the last years while for all private workers the gain was 2%
Like we should expect anything happening in labor that suggests the answer to the Reagan question of are you better off is even a mildly spoke “sure”.
Idiots answered yes when Reagan asked without thinking about the facted that 2 parents were working. I guess it was just about the money then.
Want to understand where labor and workforce rate? Just look at the NFL ref strike. As I understand it, it’s all about doing away with their pensions.
Always the pensions first! Next up, the “grand Bargin”.
If you didn’t like the August report, just wait. Temp jobs were down. The workweek held steady at the lowest level in a year. Hiring diffusion fell to just 50%. These are all indications that the slowdown in hiring could persist.
Meanwhile, households have reported job drops in 4 of the past 6 months. There is some thought that the household survey catches turns more quickly than the payroll survey. If that’s true, then we are seeing a sign that the labor market is not just stagnant, but slowing. Short-term averages for payroll hiring are lower than longer term averages – which is to say, the trend in payroll hiring is slowing. So while households report job losses and firms report job gains, both are signaling trouble.
Which means that wage growth will remain terrible.
Disagree, this was a solid report. The BLS is failing in their responsibility.
OK, the old blame the messenger.
Have not seen that in a long time.
I am blaming the messenger. They screwed up. It wasn’t a great report, but they need to stop putting numbers like “96,000” out there when the actual number was far higher.
Better yet, stop seasonally adjusting and just put the raw data out there. That is why I am sick of the BLS. Just say 252,000 jobs were created in non-farm payrolls and 562,000 were lost in Household. Using seasonal adjustment
Lets note, Household is not as good, because it represents seasonal activity and part time work. The point? Since we had a nice surge in farm payrolls, people left their part time jobs and as George Jefferson said “moving on up”. Reductions in Household survey’s were actually a good thing!!!! They will probably also respond in the fall as usual as well.
I amazed how people don’t understand this report. The BLS is a failure. The market should only respect the ADP and reject anything the BLS has to say.
If it leads toward another useless FED bond buying activity that isn’t needed, it would represent even further failure.
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