CGI 2011 – Plenary on Climate Change (AGW)
President Clinton introduces the panelists, noting that there is a UN discussion of Libya scheduled for 10:00 a.m. and that they will have to leave quickly. First up is Mexican President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, about whom President Clinton is enthusiastic.
Calderon is less vibrant, but presents an impressive array of detail on Mexico’s unilateral reduction in carbon usage, noting that 26% of the energy used in the country now is from renewable sources. Part of this has been accomplished by the simple things: a concerted consumer campaign toward replacing old refrigerators and light bulbs with modern ones.
President Calderon notes that much of the problem in developing countries has originated with cutting down the extant trees. The Cancun meetings resulted in a new international agreement. Today, we have a new challenge: continuing the Kyoto Protocol. “Most important agreement and most important instrument”—saying this in front of President Clinton—needs leadership and mobilization of public opinion.
President Clinton notes that the countries that have been putting major effort into climate change have outperformed the United States in jobs, growth, and reducing income inequality.
President Jacob Zuma, President of the Republic of South Africa, notes that “we all agree that climate change is a danger” and that “we need to work together to address the challenges.” The people on the ground—the voters—see this as a direct matter of life and death; it is the leadership that is needed in Durban.
Jens Stoltenberg, the Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Norway, says that he would not have believed you if you had told him ten years ago that emissions trading in Europe would be possible. Need to have legal agreements, not just a Durban-style reiteration of Kyoto and Copenhagen. (Those of us who were talking about trading energy and weather derivatives twenty years ago probably should be less amazed at this statement than I am.)
President Clinton asks how to work toward energy use reduction in developing countries. The Prime Minister of Grenada, Tilman Thomas, addresses this, mostly by noting a “moral responsibility” to the people of his country. President Clinton notes, repeating what he said last night, that of all of the Caribbean countries, only Trinidad produces any of the carbon-based energies—all other countries have to import oil and natural gas at great cost. If there were financing available, could expand alternative sources: solar, hydro, and sugar-ethanol, for instance.
The Prime Minister of Slovenia, Danilo Türk, notes that there is Global Governance taking place without global government. Carbon tax would be good because it makes costs predictable. “Very fundamental long-term development challenge,” need to find the “appropriate public funds for transformative technologies now,” following the German solar precedent.
(President Clinton noted that the sun shines in Germany “as much as it does in London.” I take this to mean that it is not a bright, cheerful country.)
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Hasina echoes the sentiment expressed by several others: there needs to be a legal requirement. She notes that 20% of the land of her country will be eliminated as the current trend runs. President Clinton adds The Maldives and even Afghanistan to the list of places that will have to do more and more with less and less (land and resources).
Prime Minister of Mali Cissé Mariam Kaïdama Sidibé notes that one of the biggest problems facing her country is “brain drain” to the United States and Europe.
European Commission President José Manuel D. Barroso notes that many countries have taken individual steps, but that much more is needed to reach the 2 degrees C target—currently on target for only about 60% of that. “Transparency is key.” Have two very important alliances: science, which is on our side, and public opinion, which should be.
President Calderon has been leading in reforestation; planted about half (500MM) of the trees U.N. Secretary General requested—and collaterally made Mexico City a better place to live. Tells a story about Tanzania, in which a village grew trees for carbon credits: and gave back more than half of that to get more people in the village a better life. (I suspect this is an example of what David Graeber is talking about when he notes that communal obligation has always preceded—and generally superseded—economic theory.)
President Clinton also notes that the U.S. Senate is now only 50% “global warming deniers.” He apologizes for that, but notes that it is progress from the 95-0 vote against the Kyoto Treaty.
I believe that is also the only time the phrase “global warming” was used in the entire discussion. It was almost as if people were afraid to note that the changes are of our own doing, not just the Earth getting mad.
Ken I hate to rain on your parade, but nothing is going to come of all this.
Mexico is modernizing and catching up to where the US was a decade ago. So yes they are going to make great strides.
“The Cancun meetings resulted in a new international agreement.” Cancun didn’t result in anything. (Other than a lot of private jets taking people to the big party on the beach).
“Need to have legal agreements, not just a Durban-style reiteration of Kyoto and Copenhagen. ” The EU has failed to make any of its Kyoto targets and doesn’t look like it will The US made better strides in energy efficientcy and carbon reduction – without Kyoto. And of course Kyoto was voted down 95-0 (as Clinton pointed out). My bet it would befall a similar fate today. And did anything even come of Copenhagen??? Again nope.
Clinton’s note on Germany was actually a pat on the back to the Germans – they are leading in Solar energy and he was probably taking a swipe at the UK becuase they arn’t keeping up…
“Bangladeshi Prime Minister Hasina echoes the sentiment expressed by several others: there needs to be a legal requirement. She notes that 20% of the land of her country will be eliminated as the current trend runs.” Make your country richer by expanding freedoms, education, trade etc and you won’t have a problem. Continue to be poor, becuase of your government and cultural issues and this will be a problem (Assumming it even happens). This is cultural Darwinism at its finest.
Same for Mali and Afghanistan for that matter. Mali can end the brain train if they actually made the country somewhere the ‘brains’ want to stay in. If all your best and brightest are leaving for the civilized world then it might behoove you to adapt those same ways as the civilized world.
The US can absorb the entire population of the Maldives easily. The loss of those islands is not an issue. The US has no moral issue in preventing this. But we would probably be nice and take in all the refugees or help with their resettlement. We are a pretty generous country that way.
And until you get the Chinese and all the rest of the developing countries to restrict their energy/carbon use (and thus their growth), NOTHING the US does will have one iota of an effect on any man-mdae climate change even assuming its true. Fat chance of that happening.
Of course this all assumes 1) Humans can truely effect climate change 2) Its cost effective to try to change the climate instead of adapting like the human race has for a long time.
This looks a lot like more attempts to transfer wealth from north to south without the concurrent demand that the undeveloped world actually gets it act in order (see current famine in the Horn of Africa thread a while back).
And the bottom line; this will be another wank-fest that will be forgotten in a month if not a week. Everyone will go home ‘energized’ and feeling great. And nothing will come of it.
The idea that we understand long-term climate trends to say these trends are either permanent or our doing is laughable. They used to grow grapes during the Roman times in York England. Those vines didn’t do well in the subsequent little ice age. The climate changes, people adapt.
And the Earth cannot get mad. Or get emotionally anything. Its a rock.
Islam will change
“And the Earth cannot get mad. Or get emotionally anything. Its a rock.”
It’s the Liberals “Pet Rock”
I get the biggest kick out of this massive circle jerk….these people keep pretending as if there is no political agenda behind it all. They have come to the point where they beleive their own rhetoric, and even more amazing is the idea that this is a pressing issue that “immediate action must be taken”