Forthcoming Tyler Cowen articles that will be Echoed by Felix Salmon
References are here (Cowen) and here (Salmon).*
- Just because Charlie Sheen got drunk, did some other drugs, and committed adultery doesn’t mean he’ll do it again.
- Just because someone who calls himself Jack the Ripper has killed two women in London doesn’t mean he’ll do it again.
- Just because the U.S. dropped a hydrogen bomb that emits massive amounts of radiation on Hiroshima doesn’t mean they’ll do it again.
- Just because Megan McArdle makes mistakes when she tries to do financial analysis doesn’t mean she’ll do it again.
Feel free to add more in comments.
Cowen, by the way, wins the intellectually-inconsistent-in-a-short-period award (partially because Felix’s argument meanders more than Moses in the desert):
[T]he “we should have had a much bigger stimulus” argument is unlikely to go down in intellectual history as the correct view. Instead, Ken Rogoff and Scott Sumner are likely to go down as the prophets of our times. We needed a big dose of inflation, promptly, right after the downturn. Repeat and rinse as necessary.
Shorter Tyler Cowen: we didn’t need to put a lot more dollars into the economy than we did. Instead, we needed to put a lot more dollars into the economy than we did.
UPDATE: Mark Thoma is collecting reaction to the S&P’s alleged rationale as only he does. See especially Economics of Contempt’s post and this e-mail from the someone who has Been There and Done That.
*Who follows up his far-too-nuanced-for-me “FAQ.” But I am a Bear of Very Little Brain compared to such analysis.
Um..Hiroshima was an atomic, (fission) bomb, not a hydrogen (fusion) one. And of course the plan was to keep dropping them until Japan surrendered. We were producing them at a rate of 2-3 a month. The only real questions were would we start saving up a bunch to use to drop on the beaches pre-invasion. Failing that, could we find enough non-destroyed square miles of built-up urban area in Japan that they’d NOTICE a nuclear weapon.
Um..Hiroshima was an atomic, (fission) bomb, not a hydrogen (fusion) one. And of course the plan was to keep dropping them until Japan surrendered. We were producing them at a rate of 2-3 a month. The only real questions were would we start saving up a bunch to use to drop on the beaches pre-invasion. Failing that, could we find enough non-destroyed square miles of built-up urban area in Japan that they’d NOTICE a nuclear weapon.
Um..Hiroshima was an atomic, (fission) bomb, not a hydrogen (fusion) one. And of course the plan was to keep dropping them until Japan surrendered. We were producing them at a rate of 2-3 a month. The only real questions were would we start saving up a bunch to use to drop on the beaches pre-invasion. Failing that, could we find enough non-destroyed square miles of built-up urban area in Japan that they’d NOTICE a nuclear weapon.
“We needed a big dose of inflation, promptly, right after the downturn.”
…but all we got was this lousy flatus.
jack
you seem to overlook the possibility that Douthat intends to confuse. That’s what you do when you are lying to people. Cowan is likely one of the confused… it is easy to confuse people who can’t think straight… something that comes from lying or living with liars.
as for the finger of doom at medicare.
if medical costs are going to go up… for good reasons or bad… we will still have to pay for them… or do without. Medicare is the cheapest, safest, fairest way to pay for them.
the problem is that the American people have been taught to believe that “someone” else should pay for them. Make medicare a self supported system, fully, like Social Security proper, and the “tax” will go up, but not so much that we can’t afford it…. given the options.
All the Big Liars are doing is taking advantage of the words “tax” and “government spending” to keep people from realizing they are going to have to pay for something they need. and “cutting Medicare” is just a way to make sure they won’t be able to pay for it in a way that makes sense…. that is pay for it in advance of need, while you have the money, and rely on “pay as you go” to keep up with the “inflation” problem.
that will “be fair” because as long as costs are going up, each generation will pay LESS than its own costs. no generation will pay MORE than its own costs, even if they think they are paying for someone else’s grandmother. the time will come when they are the grandmother.
and while some young people are so stupid they resent paying “now” for “someone else’s needs”, most people figure it out eventually that they are paying “now” for their own future needs when they won’t be able to pay for it.