EMPLOYMENT REPORT
The headline number of payroll jobs was strong and the markets are reacting strongly to the report that 224,000 jobs were created last month. Moreover, the job gains were widespread with the only secctors to show an employment drop were temporary jobs and government.
Private payroll employment rose 268,000, the largest increase this cycle.
But the household survey reported an employment drop of some 190,000. The unemployment rate is based on the household survey so the unemployment rate ticked back up to 9.0%.
On balance, this employment report showed essentially the same news as the last several reports of weak employment gains that are well below historic norms. However, by the standards of the recent jobless recoveries this cycle continues to underperform the 1990s cycle and show stronger growth than the 2000s cycle.
The workweek was unchanged so that despite the large increase in private payrolls aggregate hours worked only rose 0.2 from 100.5 to 100.7. This is about the same that we have seen for the past several months.
Average hourly earnings rose rose from $19.32 to $19.37, or 0.2%. The year over year gain in average hourly earnings remains at 1.9%, where it has been for several months. Moreover, average weekly earnings growth at 2.5% continues to moderate. But with yesterdays plunge in oil prices real earnings might actually rise this month. But the wage data shows absolutely no signs of inflationary pressure.
Except oil already went up because: Everybody is working!
It is amazing that the birth/death model, notorious for missing the inflection points, can still be accurate across all the sector components of that aggregate…tis the season of renewel, neva mind that piddly household survey.
The problem witrh American labor is the system that produced us gumint retirees.
Bold assertion. How so ? Ilsm.
The American problem is the Ronald Reagan Hollywood fallacy, an innaccurate measurement system based on the worth of a citizen by the size of their pocket book. Did you not see the original Wall Street with Martin Sheen ?
The Germans put the run on Walmart, insisting that they buy local content and honor the industry-wide Union agreement. Walmart exited because they cannot compete on a level playing field. The republican agenda for the last 30 years has been to destroy the FDR innovations in favor of the 1920’s innovations. The richer one is, the less they pay in taxes and the more they extract in services.
The government is sold out, and the “public servants” do not serve the public.
When “public servants” do push against the public corruption, well that is why there are whistleblower protections to give the harmed employee several years and their life savings in legal fees to try and fight the retribution.
To acheive high rank a “public servants” must be a good fella.
government is sold out to the military industry, the air transport industry, energy cabals, medical insurance to name a few.
And civil service and military “service associations”.
Good Morning Spencer:
Just returned from a whirl wind trip to Shenzhen and Shanghai China to recoup moneies spent for product we should have been charged normal prices. China has been building “Building Monements” for future use or no use just to keep its people employed. Near Shenzhen and in a new area of development, the evidence is quite clear of their spending the money necessary to maintain employment. I passed what appeared to be one office/shopping center which took minutes to get around and then I turned a corner to get another view of the same style of buildings. In evidence also are past building attempts which are unoccupied and concrete monuments to maintaining Labor, someting the US does not practice. Shanghai continues to bustle and I did not see nearly any of the building excess as seen in Shenzhen.
As to this month’s unemployment report, it appears to be positive. I would call it stalemate. U3 is up and Participation Rate steady. More people looking for work may be the issue for an increased U3 number which could come from NILF. Local Govs still laying off and counter the employment increases in private industry. I suspect we will continue to see a stalemate until we reach a point were NILF is far smaller. March and April Numbers were revised upwards, a good sign.
In any case, the cutting of Unemployment benefits in Michigan and other states is premature and is playing to the tune of ALEC (a tax exempt lobby with many legislators a part of its membership) and the Koch Brothers (funds the Mackinaw Center). 20% of the most recent bills passed by states have had the influence of ALEC to secure passage. No doubt they have played a role in the recent passage of unemployment from 26 weeks to 20 weeks at a pivotal time.
run,
China has been building “Building Monements” for future use or no use just to keep its people employed.
If you google “china ghost cities” you will find a lot of stories about this phenomenon. Here is one: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satellite-images-cities-lying-completely-deserted.html
It is the Planned Economy at work, different from the market economy in the magnitude of overbuilding. I think it is a gigantic waste of resources. Do you think it is a good thing?
Sammy:
Or face revolution. It is probably a good idea in that respect. Waste of resources is not putting Labor to work building resources. Is it so bad to dig holes and then refill them? I do not think so.
China’s infrastructure is better than ours now laying the ground work for future gains. Keeping people employed maintains a capability also, something which we will lose to other countries as we lose the expertise.
Articles, I do not need as I was there.
Spencer:
Why does the first chart project to January 2017?
It does not project to 2017. It shows monthly data and leaves room in the chart for the remaining observations in 2011 so I only have to change the dates in the chart once a year.
Please don’t forget FIRE in that list. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate have long been well served by the regulators trough.
Now that’s what I call ROI!