Predicting the Start and End of the Great Recession, and Trying to Sell Books
by Mike Kimel
Predicting the Start and End of the Great Recession, and Trying to Sell Books
Cross posted at the Presimetrics Blog.
No doubt you’ve heard that the NBER put the endpoint to the last recession in June of 2009. I wonder if anyone forecasted that. Oh yeah, back in December of 2008 I said I expected the recession to end in the first half of ’09. (Yes, I know, the post was put up in early January, but I sent it in a few days before the end of the year, as is plainly evident if you read the comments to that post.) I think I made that call only a few weeks after Larry Kudlow stopped talking about the Goldilocks Economy and started acknowledging there was trouble. And incidentally, I also noted in a number of posts that the recovery would be unimpressive when it did arrive.
In the spirit of tooting my horn a bit (my wife tells me I don’t do it nearly enough), I would also note that I noted that the economy was in recession as early as March of ’08, and that the recession was a bit different from most earlier recessions. In fact, at about the same time, I also prebutted some of the arguments that conservatives and Austrians might make as they try to take credit for predicting the mess themselves.
Now, granted, I misunderestimated the inanity of the previous and the current administrations’ responses to the mess, and thus the severity of the recession, but I also recognized that recession really was not going to be the end of the world and that it would take mismanagement for it to end up being considered truly awful. For instance, the 73 – 75 recession, could have been alleviated with decent leadership, but it was going to be a deep recession no matter what. By contrast, this latest downturn could have been like early 90s fall-out from the S&L crisis except for the stupendously poor decisions made by those running the show. Yeah, I know, plenty of people who didn’t see it coming and then didn’t see it ending don’t agree with this last paragraph… so I’m going to avoid some grief by not telling you (right at this moment, anyhow) where the economy is going from here, and when.
Other recession-related predictions I got right… I think spotting the end game for the bail-out early on counts for something. And while its not recession-related, I did note something a few times that has some bearing now, which is that sooner or later even the conservatives who couldn’t stop singing Karzai’s praises would conclude he was a corrupt kleptocrat.
So… since I’ve got a book to sell, I have to ask – where’s my media exposure? Why am I not on tv? Doesn’t getting it righter than the average bear count for something? I can be loud and obnoxious if I have to. And the book is quite good if I say so myself,, and pretty original to boot.
I have a little rooster who is teaching me how to become a better man. Blowing his horn is a requirement to better manage my free range hens. His postion befell him, because I offed his rivals. If you want to blow your horn and sell books, don’t waste your time trying to devine the truth, learn instead what lies are acceptable to the oligarchal chicken herders on high, and learn how to tell them well. But then you would loose my respect. Good luck.
You have to cultivate reporters that will turn to you for a point of view.
Jon Stewart hasn’t called yet? Though Steven Colbert want to keep the fear going and you book could make him very fearful.
Troy,
“Household debt went from $8T at the end of 2001 to $14.4T in 1H07.”
True, but GDP went up the whole time, so it was an obvious success.
Besides, who needs S&Ls??? Faulty biz model if they all go bankrupt like that.
Maybe we had a little bump in the road, but USG deficits and total government debt have been growing nicely too, and we shouldn’t forget how that adds to GDP, even tho it is difficult for many of us to notice.
I’ll also add that Greenspan got a $10 million advance for his book, even tho the reviews were quite crappy once we all had a chance to read it.
I mention that so that if we find out that life is fair, Mike should make BooKoo bucks on his book.
cursed,
Not everyone who gets media attention abandons their principals. Some of them are just crazy. But that is less concerning than it sounds; it does, at least, indicate that there are alternatives to selling one’s soul.
Going to try.
divorced,
No calls yet.
Troy,
If you change your first two sentences a bit, you could describe the S&L crisis. The difference, crucially, was that it wasn’t the homeowners borrowing stupidly as in the 00s, but rather the S&Ls. That served as stimulus too.
CR,
Obviously life isn’t fair… but I’m hoping to get the word out about the book. Sure, money would be nice, but there’s a message in the book that is far more important to me. And it would buy me the credibility needed to write book 2 which has a more important message.
Mike –
why don’t you call them?
Cheers!
JzB
cactus,
I agree with your wife…
I have, and the publisher’s publicist has called as well.
Make that principles.