UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: 1975, 1982-83 and 2009
By Spencer
The weekly initial unemployment claims are widely reported and various charts show how they have been falling since the peak.
But it is hard to compare the drop in claims this cycle compared to after other severe recessions in the standard charts showing claims over time.
So to make such comparisons easier I though readers might find a chart showing claims after the 1974 and 1982 recessions and this recession on the same scale.
Everyone can draw their own conclusions, but I am surprised to find that the drop this cycle is almost identical to the drop after the 1981-82 recession.
Fascinating. You’re surprised. I’m astonished. But maybe I shouldn’t have been. It seems that the joblessness of recoveries after 1982 has more to do with low exit rates from unemployment (low new job finding and much lower recall from temporary layoffs) than with high continuing rates of layoffs.
So I shouldn’t have been astounded, but I remain much informed by your graphs.
interesting
However, you should normalize your data by the labor force in order to make it more comparable over time.
My guess is that the decrease would then not be as big as it seems on your chart
I’ve been arguing that the reason the recoveries after 1991 and 2001 were jobless was simply that growth was low, and that we are more likely to see a recovery like those following the 1974-75 and 1981-82 recessions. Your graph is consistent with this argument. Take a look: http://gecon.blogspot.com/.
I agree with Robert. Jan Hatzius has research out showing that what matters for the shape of the recovery (V, jobless) is the ability of the unemployed to find jobs, not the continued loss of jobs. So, the fact that claims look similar to the ’74 and 81′ V recoveries does not tell you much about the similarity between total employment then and now. Lets see a similar graph for hirings.
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