was just looking at this picture and thought it was worth sharing, a propos of recent postings on the prospective pace of stimulus expenditures:
This shows subsequent revisions to the CBO’s real GDP forecasts. Barring an exceptionally rapid recovery, GDP looks to be materially below potential output in 2011 (i.e. 3 quarters of FY 2011 and 1 of FY 2012) and 2012. Not-so-near-term stimulus is thus defensible; the real question is whether the near-term package is enough.