Jerry Bowyer is mocking that mythical character named recessionista again:
Retail spending dropped very little last month, and it didn’t drop at all if you exclude autos. Meanwhile, consumer spending has consistently been up compared to the same time last year. The consumer will simply stop spending? Hasn’t happened.
Translation – if consumption of nondurable goods goes up, real GDP cannot fall. Never mind that consumption of durable goods fell last quarter. Never mind that both residential and non-residential investment fell last quarter. Never mind that some of what we consume is imported and that imports rose last quarter:
Oh, and gas prices will never, ever, ever reduce retail spending since gas is a component of retail spending. Chain stores own gas stations. More money spent on gas is not a subtraction from overall consumer spending, it’s a transfer from one retail department to another.
What a dumb statement! Gasoline price increases are attributable to higher prices for oil and not higher retail margins. And of course, Bowyer knows more about housing valuations than anyone:
Basing big-picture assumptions on Case-Shiller is a faulty approach, too.
I know the National Review prides itself on being about as ill informed on economics as it gets but isn’t Bowyer a total embarrassment even from them?