Rising Inequality in Communist China
I suspect Karl Marx would be a severe critique of today’s Chinese economic policies. We now see the views of Kenneth Rogoff who is not that impressed either:
With all due respect to the extraordinary recent performance of China’s managers, the country faces economic, financial, social and political landmines just like any other emerging market, with epic environmental problems to boot. And, throughout history, no emerging market has escaped bouts of crisis indefinitely. Inflation of more than 6 per cent is the immediate problem. Those who think inflation is caused by too little pork rather than too much money are wrong. China’s relatively pegged exchange rate system has led the authorities to flood the economy with renminbi. Rampant money supply growth is the flipside of the country’s $1,400bn accumulation of foreign currency reserves. The real surprise is that inflation did not sprout earlier. The authorities must stuff the inflation genie back in the bottle. It is not going to be easy in an economy where highly controlled financial markets render normal instruments of monetary control relatively ineffective. Until now, China has avoided this problem, as millions of idle farm workers moved to the cities, keeping wages in check. But as many of the most able workers have already migrated, the challenge of filling China’s burgeoning factories is intensifying. Protectionism is another growing risk. With income and wealth inequality rising throughout the developed world, politicians may start lashing out at China with trade sanctions on automobile parts, steel, paper products and, of course, textiles. China’s explosive export growth has made it far more vulnerable to a fall in exports than it was during the 2001 global recession. Perhaps the greatest threat to China’s expansion, however, comes from pressures created by its own exploding inequality levels. According to World Bank statistics, income inequality in China has leapfrogged that of the US and Russia, which is no small feat. Rising inequality is placing enormous strains on the political system, as is evident from a recent sequence of ill-considered policies that have been aimed at mitigating the problem. The government’s recent attempt to fight food inflation by using price controls is a highly conspicuous example.
Beyond the critics of their current policies, Rogoff has a few recommendations:
Rather than try to deal with inequality by labour market fiat, the government would do better to improve the social safety net through provision of more and better healthcare and pensions. Rather than deal with inflation through price caps, China should accelerate exchange-rate appreciation, thereby reining in money growth.
But his main message is that investors may wish to pay at least as much attention to a slowdown in Chinese growth as the slowdown in growth in America and Europe.