Rising health care costs and their consequences for federal health insurance programs constitute the nation’s central fiscal challenge.
Sources of Growth in Projected Federal Spendingon Medicare and Medicaid (Percentage of GDP)
Health is a growing area of analysis for CBO, with work done across the agency. CBO’s health work is divided into two categories: (1) estimating the budgetary impact of federal health programs and (2) preparing studies on health policy issues. The Health unit in the Budget Analysis Division estimates budgetary impacts; it estimates the cost of proposed health legislation and prepares spending projections for federal health programs. The Health and Human Resources Division conducts studies of health issues, including Medicare, Medicaid, pharmaceuticals, public health, and private health markets; it also develops models that underlie cost estimates. The National Security Division conducts studies of the health care provided by the Departments of Defense and Veterans Affairs. The Microeconomic Studies Division also analyzes health issues, especially those related to competition or market structure, including most recently prescription drug pricing and research and development in the pharmaceutical industry.
Although the aging of the population is frequently cited as the major factor contributing to the large projected increase in federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid, it accounts for only a modest fraction of the growth that CBO projects. The main factor is excess cost growth-or the extent to which the increase in health care spending exceeds the growth of the economy. The gains from higher spending are not clear, however.(bolding mine)
OMBWatch also has other wide ranging sources of data and opinion, including the President’s numbers.
The third rail of politics will continue to be so if this nonsense being sold as crisis of Social Security continues. It is a tired meme, but I am sure will rise again. Let us look elsewhere, such as the President’s drug program, artificially high costs generated from various cost centers, and such things as costs not equating to value within the continental US, much less internationally with outliar concerns.
The debt will be paid, so let us get creative with other issues that need addressing far more than this strawman.